Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 4, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.89 4.67 -0.80
Reds -0.60 -0.31 -0.30
Rebels -3.75 -5.52 1.80
Waratahs -7.01 -7.12 0.10
Force -10.81 -10.00 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Rebels Jul 31 20 – 25 -2.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Aug 01 22 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Brumbies Aug 07 Brumbies -3.10
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Aug 08 Reds -1.90

 

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Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.42 15.15 0.30
Hurricanes 7.98 8.31 -0.30
Blues 7.61 5.39 2.20
Chiefs 4.67 7.94 -3.30
Highlanders 0.88 -0.22 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Aug 01 19 – 32 -4.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Blues Aug 02 21 – 32 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Aug 08 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Aug 09 Crusaders 19.00

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.63 12.73 0.90
Roosters 11.37 12.25 -0.90
Raiders 6.04 7.06 -1.00
Eels 5.02 2.80 2.20
Panthers 4.86 -0.13 5.00
Rabbitohs 2.80 2.85 -0.00
Sharks 1.90 1.81 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.05 -0.18 0.20
Sea Eagles -0.63 1.05 -1.70
Knights -1.86 -5.92 4.10
Dragons -4.25 -6.14 1.90
Bulldogs -5.48 -2.52 -3.00
Cowboys -5.81 -3.95 -1.90
Warriors -6.44 -5.17 -1.30
Broncos -10.44 -5.53 -4.90
Titans -12.77 -12.99 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 24 – 32 -4.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 31 20 – 26 12.80 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 31 26 – 36 -10.40 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 01 18 – 12 28.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 12 – 14 -10.90 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 01 12 – 42 -1.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 02 16 – 18 -9.40 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 02 26 – 16 16.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 06 Roosters -13.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 07 Sea Eagles 10.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 07 Rabbitohs 15.20
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 Storm 19.10
5 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 Knights 0.10
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 08 Panthers 0.80
7 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 09 Cowboys -5.00
8 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 09 Eels -1.10

 

July 28, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.66 4.67 -0.00
Reds -1.37 -0.31 -1.10
Rebels -4.02 -5.52 1.50
Waratahs -7.01 -7.12 0.10
Force -10.54 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jul 24 29 – 10 5.60 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 25 0 – 24 -8.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Force vs. Rebels Jul 31 Rebels -2.00
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Aug 01 Brumbies 10.50

 

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.68 15.15 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.98 8.31 -0.30
Blues 6.88 5.39 1.50
Chiefs 5.41 7.94 -2.50
Highlanders 1.61 -0.22 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 25 32 – 34 13.30 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 26 21 – 17 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Aug 01 Crusaders -4.80
2 Highlanders vs. Blues Aug 02 Blues -0.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.03 12.73 1.30
Roosters 12.40 12.25 0.20
Raiders 6.55 7.06 -0.50
Eels 5.47 2.80 2.70
Panthers 3.61 -0.13 3.70
Rabbitohs 2.55 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 1.94 1.81 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.96 -0.18 1.10
Sea Eagles 0.62 1.05 -0.40
Knights -2.26 -5.92 3.70
Dragons -4.00 -6.14 2.10
Bulldogs -5.93 -2.52 -3.40
Cowboys -6.32 -3.95 -2.40
Warriors -7.34 -5.17 -2.20
Broncos -10.48 -5.53 -4.90
Titans -13.79 -12.99 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 26 – 16 5.90 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 24 12 – 24 -4.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 24 8 – 46 -20.80 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 25 18 – 10 26.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 25 28 – 24 6.30 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 25 18 – 12 6.00 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 26 12 – 18 7.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 26 14 – 22 -16.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 Rabbitohs -4.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 31 Wests Tigers 12.80
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 31 Sharks -10.40
4 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 01 Roosters 28.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Raiders -10.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 01 Panthers -1.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 02 Eels -9.40
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 02 Storm 16.30

 

July 21, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.61 4.67 -1.10
Reds -1.37 -0.31 -1.10
Rebels -4.95 -5.52 0.60
Waratahs -6.08 -7.12 1.00
Force -9.49 -10.00 0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Force Jul 17 31 – 24 13.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 18 23 – 24 -6.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jul 24 Rebels 5.60
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 25 Brumbies -8.60

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.73 15.15 0.60
Blues 7.09 5.39 1.70
Hurricanes 6.93 8.31 -1.40
Chiefs 5.20 7.94 -2.70
Highlanders 1.61 -0.22 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 18 29 – 27 4.90 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Jul 19 31 – 33 9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 25 Crusaders 13.30
2 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 26 Blues 6.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.27 12.25 1.00
Storm 13.19 12.73 0.50
Raiders 6.55 7.06 -0.50
Eels 5.18 2.80 2.40
Panthers 4.10 -0.13 4.20
Rabbitohs 2.55 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 2.13 1.81 0.30
Wests Tigers 1.24 -0.18 1.40
Sea Eagles 0.15 1.05 -0.90
Knights -1.57 -5.92 4.40
Dragons -4.19 -6.14 1.90
Cowboys -5.84 -3.95 -1.90
Bulldogs -6.62 -2.52 -4.10
Warriors -8.21 -5.17 -3.00
Broncos -9.64 -5.53 -4.10
Titans -14.29 -12.99 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Jul 16 20 – 24 10.20 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Titans Jul 17 42 – 6 26.40 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Jul 17 48 – 0 9.80 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 28 – 22 4.00 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 18 18 – 20 7.20 FALSE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 18 22 – 18 -4.00 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 19 46 – 10 12.70 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jul 19 22 – 10 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 Eels 5.90
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 24 Sea Eagles -4.00
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 24 Storm -20.80
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 25 Roosters 26.00
5 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 25 Sharks 6.30
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 25 Raiders 6.00
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 26 Knights 7.00
8 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 26 Panthers -16.40

 

July 14, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.07 4.67 -0.60
Reds -0.75 -0.31 -0.40
Rebels -4.95 -5.52 0.60
Waratahs -6.54 -7.12 0.60
Force -10.10 -10.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Reds Jul 10 18 – 18 0.40 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Force Jul 11 23 – 14 7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Force Jul 17 Reds 13.80
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 18 Brumbies -6.10

 

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