Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 14, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.73 15.15 0.60
Hurricanes 7.19 8.31 -1.10
Blues 6.84 5.39 1.50
Chiefs 6.02 7.94 -1.90
Highlanders 0.79 -0.22 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 11 26 – 15 13.90 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 12 17 – 11 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 18 Hurricanes 4.90
2 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Jul 19 Chiefs 9.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.00 12.25 1.80
Storm 12.64 12.73 -0.10
Raiders 5.82 7.06 -1.20
Eels 5.66 2.80 2.90
Panthers 4.10 -0.13 4.20
Rabbitohs 3.08 2.85 0.20
Sharks 1.07 1.81 -0.70
Wests Tigers -0.29 -0.18 -0.10
Sea Eagles -0.33 1.05 -1.40
Knights -2.10 -5.92 3.80
Dragons -4.38 -6.14 1.80
Cowboys -5.84 -3.95 -1.90
Bulldogs -6.42 -2.52 -3.90
Warriors -7.15 -5.17 -2.00
Broncos -8.10 -5.53 -2.60
Titans -13.74 -12.99 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 09 16 – 42 -16.80 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 10 16 – 12 -2.90 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 10 18 – 10 2.70 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 11 24 – 56 -0.40 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 11 26 – 8 -1.50 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 11 14 – 20 -4.50 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Eels Jul 12 4 – 10 -5.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 12 34 – 4 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Jul 16 Roosters 10.20
2 Storm vs. Titans Jul 17 Storm 26.40
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Jul 17 Wests Tigers 9.80
4 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 Dragons 4.00
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 18 Rabbitohs 7.20
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 18 Eels -4.00
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 19 Sharks 12.70
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jul 19 Panthers 11.90

 

July 7, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.07 4.67 -0.60
Reds -0.79 -0.31 -0.50
Rebels -4.92 -5.52 0.60
Waratahs -6.64 -7.12 0.50
Force -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 03 32 – 26 11.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jul 04 31 – 23 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Reds Jul 10 Rebels 0.40
2 Waratahs vs. Force Jul 11 Waratahs 7.90

 

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.99 15.15 0.80
Hurricanes 7.73 8.31 -0.60
Blues 6.57 5.39 1.20
Chiefs 6.02 7.94 -1.90
Highlanders 0.25 -0.22 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jul 04 20 – 40 -9.80 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 05 16 – 25 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 11 Crusaders 13.90
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 12 Hurricanes 12.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.47 12.25 1.20
Storm 12.49 12.73 -0.20
Raiders 5.97 7.06 -1.10
Eels 5.63 2.80 2.80
Panthers 2.76 -0.13 2.90
Rabbitohs 2.72 2.85 -0.10
Sharks 2.40 1.81 0.60
Sea Eagles 1.17 1.05 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.06 -0.18 0.20
Knights -2.07 -5.92 3.90
Cowboys -5.31 -3.95 -1.40
Bulldogs -5.49 -2.52 -3.00
Dragons -5.88 -6.14 0.30
Warriors -6.73 -5.17 -1.60
Broncos -9.03 -5.53 -3.50
Titans -14.17 -12.99 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 02 25 – 27 3.70 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 03 22 – 16 12.70 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Cowboys Jul 03 42 – 4 10.50 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 04 10 – 40 -12.90 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jul 04 26 – 16 1.30 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 04 12 – 19 0.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 05 12 – 14 6.20 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 05 10 – 26 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 09 Roosters -16.80
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -2.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 10 Rabbitohs 2.70
4 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 11 Panthers -0.40
5 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 11 Bulldogs -1.50
6 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 11 Storm -4.50
7 Knights vs. Eels Jul 12 Eels -5.70
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 12 Sea Eagles -7.10

 

July 4, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 1

By

Introduction

This proved a bit easier to set up than I expected. I was able to use the code for setting up Super Rugby Aotearoa.

I gave the Force a rating of -10 as a new team which has been my normal approach over many competitions. And yes, I know that the Reds have already played and won, but my predictions are exactly what they would have been before the game. At least I have got in before the Brumbies versus the Rebels.

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.67 4.67 0.00
Reds -0.31 -0.31 0.00
Rebels -5.52 -5.52 0.00
Waratahs -7.12 -7.12 0.00
Force -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 03 Reds 11.30
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jul 04 Brumbies 14.70

 

June 30, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.27 15.15 0.10
Chiefs 6.97 7.94 -1.00
Hurricanes 6.78 8.31 -1.50
Blues 6.57 5.39 1.20
Highlanders 0.98 -0.22 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 27 27 – 24 11.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 28 18 – 13 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jul 04 Crusaders -9.80
2 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 05 Chiefs 4.70

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.84 12.25 1.60
Storm 12.12 12.73 -0.60
Raiders 6.38 7.06 -0.70
Eels 4.43 2.80 1.60
Panthers 2.32 -0.13 2.50
Rabbitohs 2.21 2.85 -0.60
Sea Eagles 1.66 1.05 0.60
Sharks 1.56 1.81 -0.20
Wests Tigers 0.50 -0.18 0.70
Knights -2.56 -5.92 3.40
Cowboys -4.11 -3.95 -0.20
Bulldogs -4.98 -2.52 -2.50
Dragons -6.30 -6.14 -0.20
Warriors -7.23 -5.17 -2.10
Broncos -8.52 -5.53 -3.00
Titans -13.33 -12.99 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 20 – 12 -0.90 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Jun 26 50 – 6 21.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jun 26 26 – 12 21.00 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 27 32 – 20 -0.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 27 12 – 30 9.20 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 27 25 – 24 -0.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jun 28 22 – 40 4.10 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 6 – 34 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 02 Roosters 3.70
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 03 Raiders 12.70
3 Eels vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Eels 10.50
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -12.90
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jul 04 Warriors 1.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 04 Wests Tigers 0.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 05 Sea Eagles 6.20
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 05 Rabbitohs -7.20

 

June 23, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.92 15.15 0.80
Blues 7.35 5.39 2.00
Hurricanes 6.78 8.31 -1.50
Chiefs 6.31 7.94 -1.60
Highlanders 0.20 -0.22 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 20 12 – 24 5.90 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 21 25 – 39 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Blues 11.70
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 28 Crusaders 14.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.27 12.25 2.00
Storm 11.10 12.73 -1.60
Raiders 6.50 7.06 -0.60
Eels 4.31 2.80 1.50
Rabbitohs 2.73 2.85 -0.10
Sea Eagles 2.68 1.05 1.60
Panthers 1.81 -0.13 1.90
Sharks 0.54 1.81 -1.30
Wests Tigers -0.61 -0.18 -0.40
Knights -1.88 -5.92 4.00
Bulldogs -3.87 -2.52 -1.40
Cowboys -4.79 -3.95 -0.80
Warriors -6.21 -5.17 -1.00
Dragons -6.73 -6.14 -0.60
Broncos -7.33 -5.53 -1.80
Titans -14.52 -12.99 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 18 27 – 6 5.90 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 19 40 – 12 11.80 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 19 21 – 14 -8.90 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 20 8 – 20 -4.90 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Jun 20 36 – 20 5.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 20 10 – 24 -7.10 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 21 6 – 14 5.20 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 21 20 – 18 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 Rabbitohs -0.90
2 Storm vs. Warriors Jun 26 Storm 21.80
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jun 26 Roosters 21.00
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 27 Knights -0.90
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 27 Broncos 9.20
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 27 Raiders -0.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jun 28 Sea Eagles 4.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 Wests Tigers -3.30

 

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