Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 25, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.08 12.20 3.90
Munster 10.34 10.73 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.39 9.66 -3.30
Edinburgh 4.76 1.24 3.50
Ulster 4.14 1.89 2.20
Scarlets 2.53 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 1.14 2.68 -1.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Cardiff Blues -0.47 0.54 -1.00
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.26 -1.33 -2.90
Dragons -7.40 -9.31 1.90
Zebre -14.61 -16.93 2.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 13 – 17 16.90 FALSE
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 32 – 12 6.90 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 15 – 30 4.80 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 27 – 25 11.60 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 20 – 20 10.00 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 26 – 20 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 Glasgow Warriors 6.60
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 Scarlets -4.90
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 Leinster -6.90
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 Munster 14.20
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 Cardiff Blues 7.80
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 Treviso -5.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.06 12.73 1.30
Roosters 10.82 12.25 -1.40
Raiders 6.16 7.06 -0.90
Panthers 6.04 -0.13 6.20
Eels 5.46 2.80 2.70
Rabbitohs 4.00 2.85 1.20
Sharks 0.59 1.81 -1.20
Knights -0.11 -5.92 5.80
Wests Tigers -2.54 -0.18 -2.40
Sea Eagles -2.67 1.05 -3.70
Dragons -3.37 -6.14 2.80
Warriors -4.59 -5.17 0.60
Bulldogs -6.32 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -6.77 -3.95 -2.80
Broncos -11.05 -5.53 -5.50
Titans -11.72 -12.99 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Aug 20 14 – 0 -8.70 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 21 38 – 12 5.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 21 24 – 28 -6.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 22 16 – 36 -15.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 22 16 – 38 -10.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 56 – 16 5.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 23 14 – 20 3.90 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 23 12 – 0 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 Eels 3.50
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 Dragons 10.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 Roosters 23.90
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 Knights 9.00
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 Sharks 9.40
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Panthers 10.60
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Storm 16.70
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 Raiders 14.50

 

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August 21, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 9.66 -4.00
Edinburgh 5.49 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -3.50 -1.33 -2.20
Dragons -7.85 -9.31 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 25 – 37 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 Treviso 16.90
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 Scarlets 6.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 Edinburgh 4.80
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 Leinster 11.60
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 Ospreys 10.00
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 Connacht 1.10

 

August 18, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.23 4.67 -2.40
Reds -1.95 -0.31 -1.60
Rebels -2.94 -5.52 2.60
Waratahs -3.84 -7.12 3.30
Force -11.78 -10.00 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Waratahs Aug 14 8 – 28 -6.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Aug 15 19 – 3 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Force Aug 21 Reds 14.30
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Aug 22 Brumbies 10.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.01 7.99 2.00
Saracens 7.01 9.34 -2.30
Sale Sharks 5.77 0.17 5.60
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Gloucester 0.91 0.58 0.30
Bristol 0.01 -2.77 2.80
Bath -1.12 1.10 -2.20
Northampton Saints -1.44 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -1.47 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -3.08 -1.76 -1.30
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -6.50 -2.69 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Aug 15 16 – 10 -3.90 FALSE
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Aug 15 15 – 44 -0.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 15 26 – 13 18.20 TRUE
4 Bath vs. London Irish Aug 16 34 – 17 8.50 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Saracens Aug 16 16 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Aug 17 21 – 34 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 Sale Sharks 0.30
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 Gloucester 5.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 Wasps 13.20
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 Saracens 13.00
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 Northampton Saints -0.20
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 Leicester Tigers 2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.10 12.73 2.40
Roosters 10.18 12.25 -2.10
Raiders 5.83 7.06 -1.20
Panthers 5.07 -0.13 5.20
Eels 4.43 2.80 1.60
Rabbitohs 2.59 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 1.56 1.81 -0.20
Knights -0.38 -5.92 5.50
Sea Eagles -1.25 1.05 -2.30
Wests Tigers -1.90 -0.18 -1.70
Dragons -3.20 -6.14 2.90
Warriors -5.15 -5.17 0.00
Bulldogs -5.76 -2.52 -3.20
Cowboys -6.49 -3.95 -2.50
Broncos -11.22 -5.53 -5.70
Titans -11.40 -12.99 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 13 6 – 24 -1.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 14 18 – 12 15.80 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 14 12 – 14 11.00 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 15 30 – 18 15.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 15 30 – 31 -7.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 15 36 – 8 17.90 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Aug 16 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 26 – 24 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Aug 20 Storm -8.70
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 21 Panthers 5.50
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 21 Dragons -6.00
4 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 22 Raiders -15.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 22 Roosters -10.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Rabbitohs 5.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 23 Bulldogs 3.90
8 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 23 Knights 8.10

 

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August 14, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.34 7.99 2.30
Saracens 7.45 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 6.33 0.17 6.20
Wasps 1.43 0.31 1.10
Bristol -0.43 -2.77 2.30
Gloucester -0.49 0.58 -1.10
Northampton Saints -0.62 0.25 -0.90
Bath -1.61 1.10 -2.70
Harlequins -2.03 -0.81 -1.20
Leicester Tigers -3.41 -1.76 -1.70
Worcester Warriors -5.10 -2.69 -2.40
London Irish -5.65 -5.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 28 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 57 – 20 14.20 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 39 – 0 14.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 24 – 13 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 39 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 10 – 16 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Aug 15 Sale Sharks -3.90
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Aug 15 Gloucester -0.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 15 Exeter Chiefs 18.20
4 Bath vs. London Irish Aug 16 Bath 8.50
5 Bristol vs. Saracens Aug 16 Saracens -3.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Aug 17 Northampton Saints 2.50

 

August 11, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.23 4.67 -2.40
Rebels -2.09 -5.52 3.40
Reds -2.81 -0.31 -2.50
Waratahs -4.81 -7.12 2.30
Force -10.81 -10.00 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Please note that if you are checking back on my predictions, there is a different prediction of the points difference for the Rebels versus Brumbies game. I had not realised this was to be played at a neutral ground so gave the Rebels home ground advantage. I still had the Brumbies as winning so I still had the result wrong. I have changed the prediction now so I don’t mess up my ratings for future games.

At the moment it requires an amount of checking to ensure I have home ground advantage assignments correct in games played in Australia. That is particularly the case in the NRL with games played in Sydney.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Brumbies Aug 07 30 – 12 -7.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Aug 08 45 – 12 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Force vs. Waratahs Aug 14 Waratahs -6.00
2 Reds vs. Rebels Aug 15 Reds 3.80

 

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 15.15 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.45 8.31 0.10
Blues 7.61 5.39 2.20
Chiefs 4.21 7.94 -3.70
Highlanders 1.54 -0.22 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Aug 08 31 – 18 7.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Aug 09 32 – 22 19.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Aug 15 Hurricanes -2.40
2 Blues vs. Crusaders Aug 16 Crusaders -2.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.27 12.73 1.50
Roosters 11.01 12.25 -1.20
Panthers 5.63 -0.13 5.80
Raiders 5.27 7.06 -1.80
Eels 5.11 2.80 2.30
Rabbitohs 3.02 2.85 0.20
Sharks 1.81 1.81 0.00
Knights -0.28 -5.92 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.36 1.05 -2.40
Wests Tigers -1.53 -0.18 -1.30
Dragons -3.89 -6.14 2.20
Warriors -5.70 -5.17 -0.50
Bulldogs -6.12 -2.52 -3.60
Cowboys -6.92 -3.95 -3.00
Broncos -10.65 -5.53 -5.10
Titans -11.65 -12.99 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 06 16 – 24 -13.60 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 07 22 – 26 10.30 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 07 28 – 10 15.20 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 41 – 10 19.10 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 44 – 4 0.10 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 08 28 – 12 0.80 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 09 30 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 09 12 – 14 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 13 Storm -1.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 14 Panthers 15.80
3 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 14 Eels 11.00
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 15 Sharks 15.50
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 15 Rabbitohs -7.90
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 15 Raiders 17.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Aug 16 Wests Tigers 6.60
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 Knights 3.10

 

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