NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 14.27 | 12.25 | 2.00 |
| Storm | 11.10 | 12.73 | -1.60 |
| Raiders | 6.50 | 7.06 | -0.60 |
| Eels | 4.31 | 2.80 | 1.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.73 | 2.85 | -0.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.68 | 1.05 | 1.60 |
| Panthers | 1.81 | -0.13 | 1.90 |
| Sharks | 0.54 | 1.81 | -1.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.61 | -0.18 | -0.40 |
| Knights | -1.88 | -5.92 | 4.00 |
| Bulldogs | -3.87 | -2.52 | -1.40 |
| Cowboys | -4.79 | -3.95 | -0.80 |
| Warriors | -6.21 | -5.17 | -1.00 |
| Dragons | -6.73 | -6.14 | -0.60 |
| Broncos | -7.33 | -5.53 | -1.80 |
| Titans | -14.52 | -12.99 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Broncos | Jun 18 | 27 – 6 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Jun 19 | 40 – 12 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Storm | Jun 19 | 21 – 14 | -8.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Dragons | Jun 20 | 8 – 20 | -4.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Jun 20 | 36 – 20 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jun 20 | 10 – 24 | -7.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 21 | 6 – 14 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Jun 21 | 20 – 18 | 4.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 25 | Rabbitohs | -0.90 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Jun 26 | Storm | 21.80 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Jun 26 | Roosters | 21.00 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Jun 27 | Knights | -0.90 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Titans | Jun 27 | Broncos | 9.20 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Raiders | Jun 27 | Raiders | -0.20 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | Jun 28 | Sea Eagles | 4.10 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 28 | Wests Tigers | -3.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi
please do extra careful when making Predictions .last week only 03 correct which was obvious. you do not need any stats to pick.if you consider how many players missing, day time games etc will be more accurate and helpful. just a comment cheers
4 years ago
I think you misunderstand what I do. These predictions only use past performance and home ground advantage, nothing else. Note that this week, three games had a margin less than 1 point, which means that I expect them to be close and they could go either way. As you know, one actually went to extra time. Overall I am happy about how my predictions have stood up with new rules and different grounds being used. Getting 3 out of 8 one week is just random variation: what is important is the long run performance.
4 years ago