Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 16, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.15 15.15 0.00
Hurricanes 7.55 8.31 -0.80
Chiefs 7.52 7.94 -0.40
Blues 6.15 5.39 0.80
Highlanders 0.20 -0.22 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 13 28 – 27 -3.70 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 30 – 20 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 20 Chiefs 5.90
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 21 Crusaders -3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.85 12.25 1.60
Storm 11.90 12.73 -0.80
Raiders 7.20 7.06 0.10
Eels 4.74 2.80 1.90
Sea Eagles 1.99 1.05 0.90
Rabbitohs 1.92 2.85 -0.90
Panthers 1.01 -0.13 1.10
Sharks 0.76 1.81 -1.00
Wests Tigers -1.22 -0.18 -1.00
Knights -2.64 -5.92 3.30
Bulldogs -4.09 -2.52 -1.60
Cowboys -4.18 -3.95 -0.20
Warriors -5.40 -5.17 -0.20
Broncos -6.57 -5.53 -1.00
Dragons -7.16 -6.14 -1.00
Titans -14.08 -12.99 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Jun 11 20 – 18 11.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 12 37 – 26 -2.60 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jun 12 16 – 10 5.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 13 32 – 12 17.60 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jun 13 12 – 26 -12.20 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 13 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 14 6 – 42 -16.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 14 30 – 16 -10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 18 Knights 5.90
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 19 Rabbitohs 11.80
3 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 19 Storm -8.90
4 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 20 Dragons -4.90
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Jun 20 Wests Tigers 5.00
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 20 Roosters -7.10
7 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 21 Raiders 5.20
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 21 Sharks 4.90

 

June 9, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.15 15.15 0.00
Hurricanes 8.31 8.31 0.00
Chiefs 7.94 7.94 0.00
Blues 5.39 5.39 0.00
Highlanders -0.22 -0.22 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 13 Chiefs -3.70
2 Blues vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 Blues 1.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.90 12.25 0.70
Storm 11.72 12.73 -1.00
Raiders 7.00 7.06 -0.10
Eels 4.70 2.80 1.90
Sea Eagles 2.53 1.05 1.50
Sharks 1.85 1.81 0.00
Rabbitohs 1.73 2.85 -1.10
Panthers 1.05 -0.13 1.20
Wests Tigers -1.02 -0.18 -0.80
Knights -2.46 -5.92 3.50
Bulldogs -3.15 -2.52 -0.60
Cowboys -3.47 -3.95 0.50
Warriors -6.11 -5.17 -0.90
Broncos -7.12 -5.53 -1.60
Dragons -8.25 -6.14 -2.10
Titans -13.89 -12.99 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 04 0 – 59 -14.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 05 26 – 0 10.10 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Jun 05 22 – 8 11.60 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 06 19 – 16 4.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 06 16 – 26 -2.40 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jun 07 18 – 34 11.90 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 28 – 23 -12.60 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 22 – 2 3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Jun 11 Sea Eagles 11.70
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 12 Cowboys -2.60
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jun 12 Eels 5.70
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 13 Rabbitohs 17.60
5 Knights vs. Storm Jun 13 Storm -12.20
6 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 13 Raiders -6.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 14 Roosters -16.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 14 Sharks -10.10

 

June 2, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.52 12.73 -1.20
Roosters 11.18 12.25 -1.10
Raiders 8.21 7.06 1.20
Eels 4.85 2.80 2.00
Sea Eagles 2.39 1.05 1.30
Rabbitohs 1.92 2.85 -0.90
Sharks 1.39 1.81 -0.40
Panthers 0.25 -0.13 0.40
Wests Tigers -0.16 -0.18 0.00
Cowboys -3.02 -3.95 0.90
Knights -3.67 -5.92 2.30
Bulldogs -3.97 -2.52 -1.50
Warriors -5.32 -5.17 -0.20
Broncos -5.40 -5.53 0.10
Dragons -7.43 -6.14 -1.30
Titans -14.75 -12.99 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 28 6 – 34 -6.20 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 29 36 – 6 12.00 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs May 29 28 – 12 8.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 30 0 – 18 4.40 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 30 16 – 28 3.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Raiders May 30 6 – 22 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Knights May 31 14 – 14 4.50 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 31 32 – 6 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 04 Roosters -14.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 05 Panthers 10.10
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Jun 05 Storm 11.60
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 06 Eels 4.50
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 06 Sharks -2.40
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jun 07 Raiders 11.90
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 Wests Tigers -12.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 Bulldogs 3.50

 

May 26, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Home Ground Advantage

Determining home ground advantage for this new draw has been very difficult. In some cases it has been straightforward: Storm at home, Cowboys at home, Broncos at home, Warriors always away despite their being the nominal home team. But Knights versus Dragons at Bankwest Stadium? Raiders versus Sea Eagles at Campbelltown? I made the ground neutral for those. I gave home ground advantage to a team if the opponent was from interstate (not counting Raiders playing in Sydney). Also the Eels at Bankwest Stadium have home ground advantage.

To deal with the Warriors always being the away team, I have swapped the order of the teams for some matches because the first team is always the team with home ground advantage in my code.

And yes, I know that a component of home ground advantage is thought to be the home crowd, but there are no crowds, …

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.59 12.73 -0.10
Roosters 10.72 12.25 -1.50
Raiders 7.15 7.06 0.10
Eels 3.84 2.80 1.00
Rabbitohs 2.38 2.85 -0.50
Sharks 2.16 1.81 0.40
Sea Eagles 1.46 1.05 0.40
Panthers 0.56 -0.13 0.70
Wests Tigers -0.93 -0.18 -0.70
Bulldogs -3.04 -2.52 -0.50
Cowboys -3.89 -3.95 0.10
Knights -3.98 -5.92 1.90
Broncos -4.39 -5.53 1.10
Warriors -6.35 -5.17 -1.20
Dragons -6.40 -6.14 -0.30
Titans -13.88 -12.99 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 19 16 – 24 4.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 20 28 – 32 -5.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 22 – 18 -5.90 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 21 6 – 20 -8.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 21 8 – 9 12.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 21 10 – 12 -9.30 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 22 24 – 42 7.30 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels Mar 22 6 – 46 -13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 28 Eels -6.20
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 29 Cowboys 12.00
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs May 29 Roosters 8.30
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 30 Dragons 4.40
5 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 30 Sharks 3.10
6 Storm vs. Raiders May 30 Storm 7.40
7 Panthers vs. Knights May 31 Panthers 4.50
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 31 Sea Eagles 6.50

 

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March 19, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Obviously this week is different in a number of ways. Empty stadiums, Warriors with a depleted squad. My predictions take no account of these changed circumstances.

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.03 12.73 0.30
Roosters 11.43 12.25 -0.80
Raiders 6.77 7.06 -0.30
Rabbitohs 2.94 2.85 0.10
Eels 2.67 2.80 -0.10
Sharks 1.71 1.81 -0.10
Sea Eagles 0.75 1.05 -0.30
Panthers 0.68 -0.13 0.80
Wests Tigers 0.20 -0.18 0.40
Bulldogs -2.39 -2.52 0.10
Cowboys -4.54 -3.95 -0.60
Broncos -4.94 -5.53 0.60
Knights -5.11 -5.92 0.80
Warriors -5.98 -5.17 -0.80
Dragons -6.52 -6.14 -0.40
Titans -12.70 -12.99 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 8 – 2 7.30 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 24 – 6 22.00 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 21 – 28 3.60 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 20 – 0 3.70 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 22 – 18 3.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 20 – 14 -10.40 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 4 – 18 -9.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 14 – 24 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 19 Bulldogs 4.20
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -5.20
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -5.90
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -8.20
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 21 Roosters 12.70
6 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 21 Storm -9.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 22 Wests Tigers 7.30
8 Titans vs. Eels Mar 22 Eels -13.40

 

March 10, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.82 17.10 -2.30
Chiefs 8.72 5.91 2.80
Hurricanes 7.53 8.79 -1.30
Jaguares 6.81 7.23 -0.40
Blues 4.10 -0.04 4.10
Sharks 3.73 -0.87 4.60
Brumbies 3.38 2.01 1.40
Stormers 1.27 -0.71 2.00
Bulls -0.14 1.28 -1.40
Highlanders -0.22 4.53 -4.70
Reds -1.61 -5.86 4.30
Lions -3.53 0.39 -3.90
Rebels -5.52 -7.84 2.30
Waratahs -5.82 -2.48 -3.30
Sunwolves -22.51 -18.45 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 06 24 – 20 25.20 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 06 14 – 53 -4.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 07 15 – 24 10.50 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 07 37 – 17 1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 07 33 – 19 1.10 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Mar 07 38 – 13 3.20 TRUE
7 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Mar 06 14 – 47 -17.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 13 Chiefs 5.70
2 Sunwolves vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -31.30
3 Blues vs. Lions Mar 14 Blues 13.60
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 14 Reds 4.50
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 14 Sharks 7.00
6 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Jaguares 13.00
7 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 13.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.34 7.99 2.30
Saracens 7.45 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 6.33 0.17 6.20
Wasps 1.43 0.31 1.10
Bristol -0.43 -2.77 2.30
Gloucester -0.49 0.58 -1.10
Northampton Saints -0.62 0.25 -0.90
Bath -1.61 1.10 -2.70
Harlequins -2.03 -0.81 -1.20
Leicester Tigers -3.41 -1.76 -1.70
Worcester Warriors -5.10 -2.69 -2.40
London Irish -5.65 -5.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 28 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 57 – 20 14.20 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 39 – 0 14.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 24 – 13 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 39 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 10 – 16 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish Mar 21 Bath 8.50
2 Bristol vs. Saracens Mar 21 Saracens -3.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 Exeter Chiefs 18.20
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Mar 21 Sale Sharks -3.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 21 Northampton Saints 2.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Mar 21 Gloucester -0.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 9.66 -4.00
Edinburgh 5.49 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -3.50 -1.33 -2.20
Dragons -7.85 -9.31 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 25 – 37 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 21 Connacht 5.20
2 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 21 Ulster 18.90
3 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Mar 21 Edinburgh -13.90
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Mar 22 Cardiff Blues 21.90
5 Cheetahs vs. Leinster Mar 22 Leinster -10.50
6 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -2.00
7 Treviso vs. Munster Mar 22 Munster -6.90

 

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