Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 10, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.73 12.73 -0.00
Roosters 12.25 12.25 0.00
Raiders 7.06 7.06 0.00
Rabbitohs 2.85 2.85 0.00
Eels 2.80 2.80 -0.00
Sharks 1.81 1.81 0.00
Sea Eagles 1.05 1.05 0.00
Panthers -0.13 -0.13 0.00
Wests Tigers -0.18 -0.18 0.00
Bulldogs -2.52 -2.52 -0.00
Cowboys -3.95 -3.95 0.00
Warriors -5.17 -5.17 -0.00
Broncos -5.53 -5.53 0.00
Knights -5.92 -5.92 0.00
Dragons -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
Titans -12.99 -12.99 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 Eels 7.30
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 Raiders 22.00
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 Cowboys 3.60
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 Knights 3.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 Rabbitohs 3.00
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Roosters -10.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 Storm -9.70
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 Wests Tigers -4.00

 

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March 3, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.23 17.10 -0.90
Hurricanes 8.84 8.79 0.00
Jaguares 7.70 7.23 0.50
Chiefs 6.52 5.91 0.60
Sharks 2.84 -0.87 3.70
Blues 2.79 -0.04 2.80
Brumbies 2.34 2.01 0.30
Stormers 1.27 -0.71 2.00
Highlanders 1.22 4.53 -3.30
Bulls -1.59 1.28 -2.90
Lions -2.28 0.39 -2.70
Reds -3.02 -5.86 2.80
Waratahs -3.62 -2.48 -1.10
Rebels -6.77 -7.84 1.10
Sunwolves -21.46 -18.45 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Feb 28 22 – 28 17.00 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Feb 28 29 – 17 3.00 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Feb 29 62 – 15 34.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 29 23 – 33 1.80 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Blues Feb 29 14 – 33 8.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Feb 29 24 – 39 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 06 Crusaders 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 06 Chiefs -4.10
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 07 Hurricanes 10.50
4 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 07 Rebels 1.50
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 07 Sharks 1.10
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Mar 07 Bulls 3.20
7 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Mar 08 Brumbies -17.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.20 7.99 1.20
Saracens 7.77 9.34 -1.60
Sale Sharks 5.10 0.17 4.90
Wasps 0.77 0.31 0.50
Gloucester 0.17 0.58 -0.40
Bath -0.47 1.10 -1.60
Bristol -0.89 -2.77 1.90
Northampton Saints -1.03 0.25 -1.30
Harlequins -1.57 -0.81 -0.80
Leicester Tigers -3.72 -1.76 -2.00
London Irish -4.41 -5.51 1.10
Worcester Warriors -4.69 -2.69 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 29 13 – 19 6.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Feb 29 17 – 23 0.30 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 29 34 – 30 -7.50 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 29 14 – 8 5.40 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Wasps Feb 29 26 – 36 0.50 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Feb 29 21 – 27 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 Bristol 5.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 Exeter Chiefs 14.20
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 Sale Sharks 14.00
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 Saracens 16.00
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 Wasps 5.10
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 Worcester Warriors 0.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 11 Postponed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.71 9.66 -3.90
Edinburgh 5.48 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.03 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.41 -3.38 3.00
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -4.03 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -7.38 -9.31 1.90
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 29 14 – 6 12.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 29 55 – 19 15.80 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 01 29 – 10 13.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Cheetahs Mar 01 13 – 10 -1.20 FALSE
5 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Mar 01 19 – 29 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 Dragons 2.20

 

February 25, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 5

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.23 17.10 -0.90
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 6.76 7.23 -0.50
Chiefs 6.52 5.91 0.60
Stormers 3.02 -0.71 3.70
Highlanders 2.74 4.53 -1.80
Brumbies 2.34 2.01 0.30
Sharks 2.01 -0.87 2.90
Blues 1.05 -0.04 1.10
Bulls -0.64 1.28 -1.90
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Reds -2.19 -5.86 3.70
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Rebels -8.28 -7.84 -0.40
Sunwolves -20.59 -18.45 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 33 – 13 17.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 24 – 36 -3.00 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 14 – 26 13.50 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 64 – 5 19.50 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 17 – 7 1.00 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 21 – 23 5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Feb 28 Highlanders 17.00
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Feb 28 Waratahs 3.00
3 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Feb 29 Hurricanes 34.60
4 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 29 Reds 1.80
5 Stormers vs. Blues Feb 29 Stormers 8.00
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Feb 29 Jaguares -1.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.84 7.99 1.80
Saracens 7.60 9.34 -1.70
Sale Sharks 4.71 0.17 4.50
Gloucester 0.55 0.58 -0.00
Bath 0.20 1.10 -0.90
Wasps 0.18 0.31 -0.10
Northampton Saints -0.87 0.25 -1.10
Bristol -1.57 -2.77 1.20
Harlequins -2.21 -0.81 -1.40
Leicester Tigers -3.77 -1.76 -2.00
London Irish -3.82 -5.51 1.70
Worcester Warriors -4.64 -2.69 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 19 – 12 6.90 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 13 – 10 8.20 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 57 – 7 11.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 24 – 20 -0.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 36 – 3 10.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 60 – 10 -8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 29 Bath 6.30
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Feb 29 Gloucester 0.30
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 29 Exeter Chiefs -7.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 29 Leicester Tigers 5.40
5 London Irish vs. Wasps Feb 29 London Irish 0.50
6 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Feb 29 Saracens -4.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.78 12.20 3.60
Munster 9.40 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.45 9.66 -3.20
Edinburgh 5.92 1.24 4.70
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 2.49 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 0.61 2.68 -2.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Cardiff Blues -0.40 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -4.03 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -7.76 -9.31 1.60
Southern Kings -14.82 -14.70 -0.10
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 83 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 13 – 21 -13.00 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 41 – 14 10.50 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 0 – 28 -17.30 TRUE
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 34 – 19 22.00 TRUE
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 20 – 10 11.40 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 34 – 24 10.20 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 36 – 17 24.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 29 Edinburgh 12.80
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 29 Leinster 15.80
3 Zebre vs. Ospreys Feb 29 Ospreys -6.00
4 Treviso vs. Ulster Mar 01 Ulster -2.10
5 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 01 Munster 13.40
6 Dragons vs. Cheetahs Mar 01 Cheetahs -1.20
7 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Mar 01 Connacht -8.90

 

February 18, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.01 17.10 -1.10
Chiefs 8.18 5.91 2.30
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 7.41 7.23 0.20
Highlanders 2.96 4.53 -1.60
Stormers 2.37 -0.71 3.10
Sharks 1.36 -0.87 2.20
Brumbies 0.68 2.01 -1.30
Blues 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Reds -4.65 -5.86 1.20
Rebels -7.63 -7.84 0.20
Sunwolves -18.13 -18.45 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 8 – 25 -9.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 24 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 17 – 43 -19.10 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 38 – 22 11.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 22 – 23 4.80 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 30 – 33 1.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 43 – 27 18.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 Crusaders 17.50
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 Sharks -3.00
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Chiefs 13.50
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 Reds 19.50
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 Stormers 1.00
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 Bulls 5.70

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.13 9.34 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 8.06 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 3.60 0.17 3.40
Northampton Saints 0.91 0.25 0.70
Gloucester 0.84 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.19 1.10 -0.90
Bristol -1.24 -2.77 1.50
Harlequins -2.20 -0.81 -1.40
Wasps -2.34 0.31 -2.70
Leicester Tigers -2.65 -1.76 -0.90
London Irish -4.11 -5.51 1.40
Worcester Warriors -4.97 -2.69 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 15 – 26 -1.70 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 15 – 29 8.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 18 – 9 3.50 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 14 – 20 8.20 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 36 – 22 10.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 21 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 Bath 6.90
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 Bristol 8.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 Exeter Chiefs 11.70
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 Gloucester -0.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 Sale Sharks 10.70
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 Saracens -8.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.23 12.20 4.00
Munster 8.93 10.73 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.08 9.66 -2.60
Edinburgh 5.28 1.24 4.00
Ulster 4.71 1.89 2.80
Scarlets 3.01 3.91 -0.90
Connacht 1.25 2.68 -1.40
Cheetahs -0.16 -3.38 3.20
Cardiff Blues -0.39 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Zebre -14.89 -16.93 2.00
Southern Kings -15.35 -14.70 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Feb 15 56 – 24 27.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 15 68 – 3 28.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Feb 16 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 16 9 – 14 5.10 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 26 – 24 -2.20 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 16 29 – 0 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 Leinster -13.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 Edinburgh 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 Munster -17.30
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 Glasgow Warriors 22.00
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 Ulster 11.40
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 Cardiff Blues 10.20
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 Scarlets 24.90

 

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