Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 11, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.32 16.73 -6.40
Panthers 4.00 2.64 1.40
Rabbitohs 3.87 -3.90 7.80
Roosters 3.60 0.13 3.50
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.99 -0.45 3.40
Sharks 2.72 2.20 0.50
Raiders 2.56 3.50 -0.90
Cowboys -0.57 2.97 -3.50
Bulldogs -2.94 -3.43 0.50
Warriors -3.22 -6.97 3.80
Sea Eagles -3.50 -1.07 -2.40
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.63 -1.40
Eels -5.43 1.51 -6.90
Titans -5.90 -8.91 3.00
Knights -8.83 -8.43 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 05 52 – 30 8.40 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jul 06 36 – 4 8.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 07 28 – 32 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 08 0 – 34 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 Panthers 4.30
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 Eels -0.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 Rabbitohs -3.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 Storm -10.80
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Raiders 6.10
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 Broncos 10.80
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 Dragons 11.00
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 Roosters -6.50

 

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July 3, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Hurricanes 11.14 16.18 -5.00
Chiefs 9.25 9.29 -0.00
Lions 7.81 13.81 -6.00
Highlanders 6.30 10.29 -4.00
Sharks 1.45 1.02 0.40
Waratahs 1.02 -3.92 4.90
Jaguares 0.97 -4.64 5.60
Stormers -0.93 1.48 -2.40
Brumbies -1.64 1.75 -3.40
Blues -2.23 -0.24 -2.00
Bulls -3.70 -4.79 1.10
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -9.97 -9.47 -0.50
Sunwolves -14.44 -18.42 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 29 39 – 16 10.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jun 29 26 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 30 22 – 45 3.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 24 – 12 -11.60 FALSE
5 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Jun 30 42 – 37 -8.30 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 30 31 – 24 -4.20 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Jun 30 25 – 14 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Crusaders 12.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 06 Reds 1.50
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Chiefs 14.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 07 Hurricanes 16.90
5 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Jul 07 Waratahs 19.50
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Jul 07 Jaguares -0.70
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 07 Stormers 1.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.37 16.73 -7.40
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.87 -3.90 7.80
Roosters 3.60 0.13 3.50
Sharks 2.72 2.20 0.50
Raiders 2.44 3.50 -1.10
Panthers 2.35 2.64 -0.30
Broncos 0.79 4.78 -4.00
Cowboys -0.57 2.97 -3.50
Warriors -1.57 -6.97 5.40
Bulldogs -2.82 -3.43 0.60
Sea Eagles -3.50 -1.07 -2.40
Titans -3.62 -8.91 5.30
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.63 -1.40
Eels -5.43 1.51 -6.90
Knights -8.83 -8.43 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 20 – 18 14.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 29 15 – 18 0.70 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 29 8 – 9 -3.10 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 30 10 – 18 11.60 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 16 – 36 -0.20 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 30 26 – 22 0.90 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jul 01 12 – 30 4.70 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 01 21 – 20 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 05 Storm 8.40
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jul 06 Panthers 8.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 07 Raiders -2.30
4 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 08 Broncos -1.40

 

June 19, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.51 16.73 -7.20
Dragons 4.78 -0.45 5.20
Rabbitohs 4.39 -3.90 8.30
Panthers 3.72 2.64 1.10
Roosters 3.46 0.13 3.30
Raiders 2.66 3.50 -0.80
Sharks 2.46 2.20 0.30
Broncos 0.58 4.78 -4.20
Cowboys -1.09 2.97 -4.10
Warriors -1.31 -6.97 5.70
Wests Tigers -3.46 -3.63 0.20
Bulldogs -4.20 -3.43 -0.80
Sea Eagles -4.87 -1.07 -3.80
Titans -5.21 -8.91 3.70
Eels -6.28 1.51 -7.80
Knights -7.45 -8.43 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 14 24 – 42 -6.00 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 15 16 – 23 6.60 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 15 32 – 6 -1.10 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jun 16 10 – 32 8.20 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jun 16 32 – 8 10.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 16 16 – 20 6.30 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Storm Jun 17 10 – 28 -13.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 17 12 – 48 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 Dragons 14.10
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 29 Warriors 0.70
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -3.10
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 30 Panthers 11.60
5 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 Bulldogs -0.20
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 30 Broncos 0.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jul 01 Wests Tigers 4.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Rabbitohs 8.50

 

June 14, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.18 16.73 -7.60
Panthers 5.61 2.64 3.00
Dragons 3.86 -0.45 4.30
Rabbitohs 3.55 -3.90 7.40
Sharks 3.18 2.20 1.00
Roosters 1.56 0.13 1.40
Raiders -0.02 3.50 -3.50
Broncos -0.14 4.78 -4.90
Cowboys -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Wests Tigers -0.79 -3.63 2.80
Bulldogs -2.08 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -2.27 -6.97 4.70
Sea Eagles -3.94 -1.07 -2.90
Eels -5.44 1.51 -7.00
Knights -7.12 -8.43 1.30
Titans -7.33 -8.91 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 08 22 – 23 -2.90 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 16 – 18 -8.80 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 09 14 – 34 6.50 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 09 16 – 18 -6.30 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 09 20 – 14 -3.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 10 24 – 16 6.80 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 10 32 – 16 11.70 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 11 16 – 18 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 14 Rabbitohs -6.00
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 15 Cowboys 6.60
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 15 Panthers -1.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jun 16 Bulldogs 8.20
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jun 16 Dragons 10.80
6 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 16 Sharks 6.30
7 Knights vs. Storm Jun 17 Storm -13.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 17 Wests Tigers 2.20

 

June 6, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Hurricanes 12.56 16.18 -3.60
Lions 8.48 13.81 -5.30
Highlanders 7.90 10.29 -2.40
Chiefs 7.64 9.29 -1.60
Waratahs 1.05 -3.92 5.00
Sharks 0.78 1.02 -0.20
Jaguares 0.62 -4.64 5.30
Stormers -0.58 1.48 -2.10
Bulls -2.90 -4.79 1.90
Blues -2.99 -0.24 -2.80
Brumbies -3.06 1.75 -4.80
Rebels -8.00 -14.96 7.00
Reds -9.21 -9.47 0.30
Sunwolves -15.24 -18.42 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 30 – 14 -3.50 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Rebels Jun 02 10 – 20 11.60 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 02 20 – 34 -3.10 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jun 02 41 – 52 -6.20 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves Jun 03 41 – 31 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 29 Blues 10.20
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jun 29 Waratahs -5.60
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 30 Highlanders 3.80
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 Hurricanes -11.60
5 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Jun 30 Bulls -8.30
6 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 30 Lions -4.20
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Jun 30 Jaguares 5.20

 

June 5, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 16.73 -7.90
Panthers 5.75 2.64 3.10
Rabbitohs 4.03 -3.90 7.90
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Sharks 3.10 2.20 0.90
Roosters 1.86 0.13 1.70
Cowboys 0.54 2.97 -2.40
Broncos 0.15 4.78 -4.60
Raiders -0.15 3.50 -3.70
Wests Tigers -0.70 -3.63 2.90
Sea Eagles -2.08 -1.07 -1.00
Bulldogs -2.16 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -4.13 -6.97 2.80
Eels -6.11 1.51 -7.60
Knights -7.42 -8.43 1.00
Titans -7.81 -8.91 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys May 31 12 – 26 2.70 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Jun 01 22 – 14 3.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Knights Jun 02 4 – 30 9.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 16 – 14 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 08 Panthers -2.90
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 Rabbitohs -8.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 09 Sea Eagles 6.50
4 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 09 Roosters -6.30
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 09 Cowboys -3.70
6 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 10 Sharks 6.80
7 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 10 Storm 11.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 11 Dragons -3.10

 

May 29, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Hurricanes 13.73 16.18 -2.40
Lions 8.48 13.81 -5.30
Chiefs 8.30 9.29 -1.00
Highlanders 6.73 10.29 -3.60
Sharks 0.78 1.02 -0.20
Waratahs 0.76 -3.92 4.70
Jaguares 0.62 -4.64 5.30
Stormers -0.58 1.48 -2.10
Blues -1.70 -0.24 -1.50
Brumbies -2.64 1.75 -4.40
Bulls -2.90 -4.79 1.90
Reds -8.92 -9.47 0.60
Rebels -9.30 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -15.66 -18.42 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 25 24 – 13 3.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sunwolves May 25 40 – 13 8.10 TRUE
3 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 25 29 – 13 2.20 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 26 39 – 27 11.50 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Highlanders May 26 15 – 18 -12.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 26 28 – 38 5.60 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Lions May 26 23 – 26 -5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 Hurricanes -3.50
2 Blues vs. Rebels Jun 02 Blues 11.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 02 Crusaders -3.10
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jun 02 Waratahs -6.20
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves Jun 03 Brumbies 17.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 16.73 -7.90
Panthers 5.75 2.64 3.10
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.69 -3.90 7.60
Sharks 3.43 2.20 1.20
Roosters 2.15 0.13 2.00
Broncos 0.15 4.78 -4.60
Raiders -0.15 3.50 -3.70
Cowboys -0.63 2.97 -3.60
Sea Eagles -0.91 -1.07 0.20
Wests Tigers -0.99 -3.63 2.60
Bulldogs -2.16 -3.43 1.30
Eels -3.65 1.51 -5.20
Warriors -4.13 -6.97 2.80
Titans -7.81 -8.91 1.10
Knights -9.88 -8.43 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 24 18 – 10 6.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 25 21 – 20 4.20 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 25 6 – 7 -7.40 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Titans May 26 34 – 14 11.80 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 26 10 – 30 -0.60 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Dragons May 26 28 – 2 1.40 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Sharks May 27 10 – 48 -5.80 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 27 14 – 10 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys May 31 Sea Eagles 2.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Jun 01 Rabbitohs 3.30
3 Eels vs. Knights Jun 02 Eels 9.20
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 Roosters 6.10

 

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May 22, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.43 15.23 -0.80
Hurricanes 14.16 16.18 -2.00
Lions 8.66 13.81 -5.10
Chiefs 8.27 9.29 -1.00
Highlanders 7.32 10.29 -3.00
Sharks 1.61 1.02 0.60
Waratahs 0.80 -3.92 4.70
Jaguares -0.21 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.75 1.48 -2.20
Blues -1.70 -0.24 -1.50
Bulls -1.96 -4.79 2.80
Brumbies -3.57 1.75 -5.30
Reds -9.51 -9.47 -0.00
Rebels -10.43 -14.96 4.50
Sunwolves -14.52 -18.42 3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 18 38 – 34 30.90 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 19 26 – 23 -11.50 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders May 19 24 – 32 -13.30 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Highlanders May 19 41 – 12 -6.80 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs May 19 28 – 24 -3.60 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Brumbies May 19 42 – 24 16.00 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls May 19 54 – 24 2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 25 Crusaders 3.80
2 Rebels vs. Sunwolves May 25 Rebels 8.10
3 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 25 Jaguares 2.20
4 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 26 Chiefs 11.50
5 Reds vs. Highlanders May 26 Highlanders -12.80
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 26 Bulls 5.60
7 Stormers vs. Lions May 26 Lions -5.90

 

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