Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 22, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.33 16.73 -7.40
Dragons 5.66 -0.45 6.10
Panthers 4.02 2.64 1.40
Rabbitohs 2.34 -3.90 6.20
Roosters 1.58 0.13 1.40
Sharks 1.18 2.20 -1.00
Raiders 0.07 3.50 -3.40
Broncos 0.06 4.78 -4.70
Wests Tigers -0.98 -3.63 2.70
Cowboys -1.08 2.97 -4.00
Sea Eagles -1.14 -1.07 -0.10
Bulldogs -2.17 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -2.77 -6.97 4.20
Eels -3.55 1.51 -5.10
Titans -7.24 -8.91 1.70
Knights -7.63 -8.43 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers May 17 16 – 2 7.00 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Warriors May 18 14 – 24 6.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 18 28 – 22 0.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Knights May 19 33 – 26 2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 19 19 – 20 -0.30 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 19 4 – 24 18.90 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Raiders May 20 25 – 18 8.80 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 20 22 – 16 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 24 Broncos 6.60
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 25 Raiders 4.20
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 25 Storm -7.40
4 Roosters vs. Titans May 26 Roosters 11.80
5 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 26 Rabbitohs -0.60
6 Panthers vs. Dragons May 26 Panthers 1.40
7 Knights vs. Sharks May 27 Sharks -5.80
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 27 Wests Tigers 4.20

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 13.50 7.47 6.00
Exeter Chiefs 11.19 7.99 3.20
Wasps 5.79 5.89 -0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.61 4.64 -0.00
Bath Rugby 1.95 1.23 0.70
Sale Sharks 0.18 -1.73 1.90
Gloucester Rugby -1.74 0.21 -1.90
Northampton Saints -1.77 1.53 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -2.26 -3.33 1.10
Harlequins -3.57 0.84 -4.40
Worcester Warriors -4.85 -4.37 -0.50
London Irish -7.61 -4.94 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Wasps May 19 57 – 36 9.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 33 – 5 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens May 26 Saracens -2.30

 

May 15, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.78 16.18 -0.40
Crusaders 14.74 15.23 -0.50
Highlanders 9.47 10.29 -0.80
Chiefs 8.72 9.29 -0.60
Lions 8.54 13.81 -5.30
Sharks 1.16 1.02 0.10
Stormers 0.12 1.48 -1.40
Bulls -0.31 -4.79 4.50
Waratahs -1.35 -3.92 2.60
Jaguares -1.86 -4.64 2.80
Blues -2.01 -0.24 -1.80
Brumbies -3.45 1.75 -5.20
Rebels -10.43 -14.96 4.50
Reds -11.12 -9.47 -1.60
Sunwolves -15.39 -18.42 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 15 – 36 -13.40 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Reds May 12 63 – 28 -5.10 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 12 31 – 29 22.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Lions May 12 39 – 27 4.00 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 12 24 – 27 12.30 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs May 12 9 – 15 -4.40 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks May 12 39 – 33 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 18 Hurricanes 30.90
2 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 19 Stormers -11.50
3 Blues vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -13.30
4 Waratahs vs. Highlanders May 19 Highlanders -6.80
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs May 19 Chiefs -3.60
6 Lions vs. Brumbies May 19 Lions 16.00
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls May 19 Jaguares 2.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.06 16.73 -4.70
Dragons 5.79 -0.45 6.20
Panthers 3.53 2.64 0.90
Rabbitohs 2.29 -3.90 6.20
Roosters 1.95 0.13 1.80
Sharks 1.21 2.20 -1.00
Raiders -0.06 3.50 -3.60
Broncos -0.31 4.78 -5.10
Wests Tigers -0.49 -3.63 3.10
Cowboys -1.03 2.97 -4.00
Bulldogs -2.20 -3.43 1.20
Eels -2.43 1.51 -3.90
Sea Eagles -3.86 -1.07 -2.80
Warriors -3.88 -6.97 3.10
Knights -7.34 -8.43 1.10
Titans -7.53 -8.91 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 10 20 – 12 2.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 18 – 29 -7.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 11 20 – 12 2.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 0 – 32 3.70 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Titans May 12 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 12 38 – 24 -2.90 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 13 24 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks May 13 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers May 17 Panthers 7.00
2 Eels vs. Warriors May 18 Eels 6.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 18 Broncos 0.70
4 Titans vs. Knights May 19 Titans 2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 19 Rabbitohs -0.30
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Storm 18.90
7 Dragons vs. Raiders May 20 Dragons 8.80
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 20 Sharks 6.40

 

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May 8, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.98 15.23 0.80
Hurricanes 15.32 16.18 -0.90
Lions 9.02 13.81 -4.80
Highlanders 8.99 10.29 -1.30
Chiefs 8.62 9.29 -0.70
Sharks 1.43 1.02 0.40
Stormers 0.21 1.48 -1.30
Bulls -0.58 -4.79 4.20
Blues -1.56 -0.24 -1.30
Jaguares -1.86 -4.64 2.80
Brumbies -2.53 1.75 -4.30
Waratahs -2.59 -3.92 1.30
Reds -8.71 -9.47 0.80
Rebels -11.35 -14.96 3.60
Sunwolves -17.80 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 73 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Jaguares May 04 19 – 23 17.00 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 04 10 – 55 -20.40 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Blues May 05 21 – 24 3.80 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Lions May 05 28 – 19 10.50 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls May 05 29 – 17 3.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 38 – 12 -7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 Hurricanes -13.40
2 Sunwolves vs. Reds May 12 Reds -5.10
3 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 12 Crusaders 22.60
4 Highlanders vs. Lions May 12 Highlanders 4.00
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 12 Brumbies 12.30
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs May 12 Chiefs -4.40
7 Bulls vs. Sharks May 12 Bulls 1.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.76 16.73 -4.00
Dragons 6.97 -0.45 7.40
Panthers 3.28 2.64 0.60
Rabbitohs 1.11 -3.90 5.00
Broncos 0.87 4.78 -3.90
Raiders 0.74 3.50 -2.80
Sharks 0.42 2.20 -1.80
Roosters -0.55 0.13 -0.70
Cowboys -0.67 2.97 -3.60
Wests Tigers -0.85 -3.63 2.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.04 1.51 -3.60
Bulldogs -2.59 -3.43 0.80
Sea Eagles -5.05 -1.07 -4.00
Knights -7.08 -8.43 1.40
Titans -8.23 -8.91 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs May 03 22 – 20 7.20 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 04 18 – 36 -3.10 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 04 20 – 26 9.10 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 05 32 – 18 11.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 05 26 – 4 1.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Eels May 05 22 – 20 6.00 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Storm May 06 34 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles May 06 22 – 20 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 10 Wests Tigers 2.80
2 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 Panthers -7.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 11 Bulldogs 2.50
4 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 Warriors 3.70
5 Storm vs. Titans May 12 Storm 24.00
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 12 Broncos -2.90
7 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 13 Dragons -2.90
8 Raiders vs. Sharks May 13 Raiders 3.30

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 13.09 7.47 5.60
Exeter Chiefs 10.74 7.99 2.70
Wasps 6.20 5.89 0.30
Leicester Tigers 4.61 4.64 -0.00
Bath Rugby 1.95 1.23 0.70
Sale Sharks 0.18 -1.73 1.90
Gloucester Rugby -1.74 0.21 -1.90
Northampton Saints -1.77 1.53 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -1.80 -3.33 1.50
Harlequins -3.57 0.84 -4.40
Worcester Warriors -4.85 -4.37 -0.50
London Irish -7.61 -4.94 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. London Irish May 05 63 – 19 10.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 05 17 – 41 -10.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps May 05 22 – 39 -4.10 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 05 32 – 24 5.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 05 13 – 35 -0.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 05 62 – 12 15.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Wasps May 19 Saracens 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Exeter Chiefs 15.50

 

May 1, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.41 16.18 -0.80
Crusaders 14.50 15.23 -0.70
Highlanders 11.01 10.29 0.70
Chiefs 9.89 9.29 0.60
Lions 8.93 13.81 -4.90
Bulls -0.05 -4.79 4.70
Stormers -0.31 1.48 -1.80
Sharks -0.59 1.02 -1.60
Blues -1.96 -0.24 -1.70
Waratahs -2.18 -3.92 1.70
Brumbies -2.53 1.75 -4.30
Jaguares -3.12 -4.64 1.50
Reds -8.71 -9.47 0.80
Rebels -9.87 -14.96 5.10
Sunwolves -17.80 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Apr 27 43 – 15 38.50 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Rebels Apr 27 34 – 18 13.20 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Lions Apr 28 27 – 22 -16.20 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 28 13 – 20 6.80 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 28 8 – 21 -13.00 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Apr 28 28 – 29 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Jaguares May 04 Chiefs 17.00
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 04 Crusaders -20.40
3 Waratahs vs. Blues May 05 Waratahs 3.80
4 Hurricanes vs. Lions May 05 Hurricanes 10.50
5 Stormers vs. Bulls May 05 Stormers 3.20
6 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 Highlanders -7.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.61 16.73 -2.10
Dragons 5.12 -0.45 5.60
Panthers 4.33 2.64 1.70
Broncos 1.24 4.78 -3.50
Sharks 0.70 2.20 -1.50
Wests Tigers 0.61 -3.63 4.20
Raiders 0.57 3.50 -2.90
Rabbitohs 0.07 -3.90 4.00
Roosters -0.10 0.13 -0.20
Cowboys -1.72 2.97 -4.70
Eels -2.33 1.51 -3.80
Warriors -2.86 -6.97 4.10
Bulldogs -2.95 -3.43 0.50
Sea Eagles -5.50 -1.07 -4.40
Knights -6.04 -8.43 2.40
Titans -8.06 -8.91 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 24 – 8 7.00 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 50 – 10 19.00 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 20 – 24 2.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 12 – 18 5.10 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 22 – 14 10.70 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 9 – 10 -6.50 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 8 – 18 2.40 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 24 – 22 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs May 03 Broncos 7.20
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 04 Rabbitohs -3.10
3 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 04 Panthers 9.10
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 05 Raiders 11.60
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 05 Warriors 1.00
6 Sharks vs. Eels May 05 Sharks 6.00
7 Dragons vs. Storm May 06 Storm -6.50
8 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles May 06 Roosters 8.40

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.08 7.47 4.60
Exeter Chiefs 10.26 7.99 2.30
Wasps 5.74 5.89 -0.20
Leicester Tigers 3.90 4.64 -0.70
Bath Rugby 0.96 1.23 -0.30
Sale Sharks 0.89 -1.73 2.60
Gloucester Rugby -0.73 0.21 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -1.34 -3.33 2.00
Northampton Saints -1.90 1.53 -3.40
Harlequins -3.08 0.84 -3.90
Worcester Warriors -4.72 -4.37 -0.30
London Irish -6.62 -4.94 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 33 – 25 8.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 34 – 19 12.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 28 20 – 43 2.90 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Apr 28 44 – 13 -0.50 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Apr 29 14 – 51 -14.20 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Apr 29 36 – 29 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. London Irish May 05 Bath Rugby 10.60
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 05 Exeter Chiefs -10.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps May 05 Wasps -4.10
4 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 05 Northampton Saints 5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 05 Leicester Tigers -0.00
6 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 05 Saracens 15.80

 

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