Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 18, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.27 12.85 1.40
Tasman 9.18 8.71 0.50
Taranaki 8.78 8.25 0.50
Auckland 6.55 11.34 -4.80
Counties Manukau 6.15 2.45 3.70
Otago 0.63 0.54 0.10
Waikato -0.37 -4.31 3.90
Wellington -0.86 4.32 -5.20
North Harbour -3.39 -8.15 4.80
Manawatu -3.94 -6.71 2.80
Bay of Plenty -4.43 -5.54 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -5.76 1.85 -7.60
Northland -13.35 -19.37 6.00
Southland -16.96 -9.71 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 27 – 27 -8.30 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 35 – 32 6.90 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 14 – 21 0.80 FALSE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 33 – 21 -7.70 FALSE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 24 – 26 3.70 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 24 – 28 5.20 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 56 – 0 25.20 TRUE
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 28 – 44 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 21 Otago 9.10
2 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 22 Wellington 6.50
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 23 Canterbury 12.10
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 23 Taranaki 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.42 9.69 -0.30
Cheetahs 7.26 -3.42 10.70
Blue Bulls 4.82 1.80 3.00
Western Province 2.97 6.46 -3.50
Sharks 2.67 -0.60 3.30
Pumas -12.52 -8.62 -3.90
Griquas -12.69 -12.45 -0.20
Cavaliers -13.07 -10.00 -3.10
Kings -20.29 -14.29 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 15 36 – 30 5.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Oct 15 55 – 17 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 22 Cheetahs 5.90

 

October 11, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.04 12.85 3.20
Taranaki 9.13 8.25 0.90
Tasman 7.10 8.71 -1.60
Auckland 6.19 11.34 -5.10
Counties Manukau 4.38 2.45 1.90
Wellington -0.03 4.32 -4.40
Otago -0.08 0.54 -0.60
Waikato -1.19 -4.31 3.10
Manawatu -3.24 -6.71 3.50
Bay of Plenty -4.95 -5.54 0.60
North Harbour -5.24 -8.15 2.90
Hawke’s Bay -5.25 1.85 -7.10
Northland -12.25 -19.37 7.10
Southland -14.12 -9.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 50 – 28 -5.90 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 31 – 49 7.70 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 47 – 18 24.50 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 39 – 31 0.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 14 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 46 – 22 4.60 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 31 – 54 1.30 FALSE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 38 – 33 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 Tasman -8.30
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 Taranaki 6.90
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 Manawatu 0.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 Canterbury -7.70
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 Hawke’s Bay 3.70
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 Wellington 5.20
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 Tasman 25.20
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 North Harbour -3.00

 

October 4, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.64 12.85 2.80
Auckland 8.51 11.34 -2.80
Taranaki 7.18 8.25 -1.10
Tasman 4.78 8.71 -3.90
Wellington 4.43 4.32 0.10
Counties Manukau 4.21 2.45 1.80
Otago 0.09 0.54 -0.40
Waikato -2.94 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.50 1.85 -5.30
North Harbour -4.83 -8.15 3.30
Bay of Plenty -5.24 -5.54 0.30
Manawatu -5.45 -6.71 1.30
Northland -11.60 -19.37 7.80
Southland -14.77 -9.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 28 23 – 29 -13.00 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 15 – 10 4.50 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 30 60 – 21 19.70 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 01 44 – 34 3.20 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 01 21 – 30 4.50 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 01 54 – 17 7.00 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 02 34 – 39 -5.00 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 48 – 27 -9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 Wellington -5.90
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 Auckland 7.70
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 Canterbury 24.50
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 Southland 0.80
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 Counties Manukau -0.10
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Waikato 4.60
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 Wellington 1.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 Bay of Plenty 4.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.35 9.69 1.70
Cheetahs 5.33 -3.42 8.70
Blue Bulls 4.74 1.80 2.90
Western Province 3.05 6.46 -3.40
Sharks 2.67 -0.60 3.30
Griquas -12.69 -12.45 -0.20
Cavaliers -13.07 -10.00 -3.10
Pumas -13.22 -8.62 -4.60
Kings -19.59 -14.29 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 30 28 – 16 12.20 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Cavaliers Sep 30 30 – 28 21.80 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 30 38 – 30 10.30 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Oct 01 63 – 26 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 15 Blue Bulls 5.20
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Oct 15 Lions -2.50

 

September 27, 2016

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.05 -0.55 10.60
Storm 9.36 4.41 4.90
Cowboys 7.77 10.29 -2.50
Panthers 6.14 -3.06 9.20
Sharks 5.65 -1.06 6.70
Broncos 5.20 9.81 -4.60
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Bulldogs -1.03 1.50 -2.50
Titans -1.31 -8.39 7.10
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 23 32 – 20 -0.90 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 24 14 – 12 2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Note that because that is how it appears in the official fixture list, I have listed the Storm as the first team here which is normally the home team. I have treated the venue as neutral. If the Sharks are considered to have home ground advantage, the expected margin drops to 0.70, still a win to the Storm, but close to even money.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sharks Oct 02 Storm 3.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.20 12.85 3.30
Taranaki 7.24 8.25 -1.00
Auckland 5.81 11.34 -5.50
Tasman 4.73 8.71 -4.00
Counties Manukau 4.26 2.45 1.80
Otago 2.79 0.54 2.30
Wellington 2.70 4.32 -1.60
Waikato -0.75 -4.31 3.60
Manawatu -4.24 -6.71 2.50
Bay of Plenty -4.63 -5.54 0.90
Hawke’s Bay -4.71 1.85 -6.60
North Harbour -5.44 -8.15 2.70
Southland -13.04 -9.71 -3.30
Northland -14.42 -19.37 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 20 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 22 21 – 29 -14.20 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 23 35 – 26 9.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 24 45 – 34 18.80 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 24 30 – 19 16.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 24 29 – 36 -5.10 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Southland Sep 25 35 – 14 10.30 TRUE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 25 38 – 44 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 28 Canterbury -13.00
2 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 Tasman 4.50
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 30 Wellington 19.70
4 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 01 North Harbour 3.20
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 01 Manawatu 4.50
6 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 01 Auckland 7.00
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 02 Canterbury -5.00
8 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 Waikato -9.70

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.37 9.69 1.70
Blue Bulls 4.74 1.80 2.90
Cheetahs 4.34 -3.42 7.80
Western Province 4.14 6.46 -2.30
Sharks 2.65 -0.60 3.30
Griquas -11.70 -12.45 0.80
Pumas -12.99 -8.62 -4.40
Cavaliers -14.16 -10.00 -4.20
Kings -19.82 -14.29 -5.50
TBC

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cavaliers vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 26 – 48 -13.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 23 31 – 52 -11.10 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 23 10 – 52 -10.70 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Lions Sep 24 7 – 71 -23.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 30 Lions 12.20
2 Western Province vs. Cavaliers Sep 30 Western Province 21.80
4 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 30 Pumas 10.30
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Oct 01 Cheetahs 19.50

 

September 20, 2016

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.02 -0.55 10.60
Storm 9.39 4.41 5.00
Cowboys 8.68 10.29 -1.60
Panthers 6.14 -3.06 9.20
Broncos 5.20 9.81 -4.60
Sharks 4.73 -1.06 5.80
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Bulldogs -1.03 1.50 -2.50
Titans -1.31 -8.39 7.10
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 16 26 – 20 6.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Sep 17 22 – 12 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 23 Cowboys -0.90
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 24 Storm 2.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.91 12.85 4.10
Taranaki 7.73 8.25 -0.50
Auckland 5.86 11.34 -5.50
Tasman 4.56 8.71 -4.10
Counties Manukau 4.26 2.45 1.80
Wellington 3.26 4.32 -1.10
Otago 2.08 0.54 1.50
Waikato -0.75 -4.31 3.60
Bay of Plenty -3.87 -5.54 1.70
Hawke’s Bay -4.54 1.85 -6.40
Manawatu -4.73 -6.71 2.00
North Harbour -6.48 -8.15 1.70
Southland -12.81 -9.71 -3.10
Northland -14.98 -19.37 4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 14 29 – 30 -1.00 TRUE
2 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 15 29 – 43 -2.10 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 16 33 – 23 26.50 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 24 – 10 10.50 TRUE
5 Otago vs. North Harbour Sep 17 24 – 13 12.90 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 17 19 – 13 -22.80 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 18 26 – 30 7.70 FALSE
8 Waikato vs. Taranaki Sep 18 20 – 20 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Bay of Plenty -4.90
2 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 22 Wellington -14.20
3 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 23 Counties Manukau 9.00
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 24 Canterbury 18.80
5 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 24 Taranaki 16.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 24 Tasman -5.10
7 North Harbour vs. Southland Sep 25 North Harbour 10.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 25 Auckland -5.70

 

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