Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 23, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.67 10.90 2.80
Tasman 11.53 12.86 -1.30
Taranaki 10.21 7.70 2.50
Auckland 7.35 5.14 2.20
Hawke’s Bay 3.83 -0.57 4.40
Wellington 3.66 -4.62 8.30
Counties Manukau 1.06 7.86 -6.80
Otago -2.63 -4.84 2.20
Waikato -6.67 -6.96 0.30
Southland -7.11 -6.01 -1.10
Manawatu -7.82 -1.52 -6.30
Bay of Plenty -7.94 -9.77 1.80
North Harbour -8.78 -10.54 1.80
Northland -14.35 -3.64 -10.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 16 39 – 20 29.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 17 36 – 37 12.80 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 18 41 – 0 16.50 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 23 – 17 17.90 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 19 49 – 14 -1.90 FALSE
6 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 19 17 – 42 -8.40 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 20 10 – 17 -21.90 TRUE
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 20 19 – 28 12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 23 Canterbury 24.30
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 24 Hawke’s Bay 0.50
3 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Bay of Plenty -2.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 26 Tasman -6.50
5 Otago vs. Southland Sep 26 Otago 8.50
6 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 26 Manawatu 5.00
7 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -6.30
8 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 27 Canterbury 7.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 5.01 3.04 2.00
Western Province 4.92 4.93 -0.00
Blue Bulls 1.54 0.17 1.40
Sharks 1.46 3.43 -2.00
Cheetahs -1.59 -1.75 0.20
Pumas -6.55 -6.47 -0.10
Griquas -9.20 -7.81 -1.40
Kings -9.48 -9.44 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 18 20 – 9 5.90 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Sep 18 29 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 19 26 – 18 6.90 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Sep 19 44 – 24 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 25 Sharks 3.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 26 Lions -3.10
3 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 26 Western Province 15.00
4 Kings vs. Griquas Sep 26 Kings 3.20

 

September 16, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 29.01 29.01 0.00
South Africa 22.73 22.73 0.00
Australia 20.36 20.36 0.00
England 18.51 18.51 0.00
Ireland 17.48 17.48 0.00
Wales 13.93 13.93 -0.00
France 11.70 11.70 0.00
Argentina 7.38 7.38 -0.00
Scotland 4.84 4.84 -0.00
Samoa -2.28 -2.28 0.00
Fiji -4.23 -4.23 -0.00
Italy -5.86 -5.86 0.00
Tonga -6.31 -6.31 0.00
Japan -11.18 -11.18 -0.00
USA -15.97 -15.97 -0.00
Georgia -17.48 -17.48 -0.00
Canada -18.06 -18.06 -0.00
Romania -21.20 -21.20 -0.00
Uruguay -31.04 -31.04 -0.00
Namibia -35.62 -35.62 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 England 22.70
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 Tonga 17.70
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 Ireland 42.00
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 South Africa 40.40
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 France 24.10
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 Samoa 20.20
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 Wales 45.00
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 New Zealand 28.10

 

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.20 9.09 3.10
Broncos 8.88 4.03 4.80
Cowboys 7.52 9.52 -2.00
Storm 6.15 4.36 1.80
Bulldogs 2.44 0.21 2.20
Sea Eagles 0.46 2.68 -2.20
Sharks 0.30 -10.76 11.10
Dragons -0.09 -1.74 1.60
Rabbitohs -0.24 13.06 -13.30
Raiders -1.13 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.78 3.69 -6.50
Eels -5.07 -7.19 2.10
Wests Tigers -5.16 -13.13 8.00
Knights -5.46 -0.28 -5.20
Warriors -7.47 3.07 -10.50
Titans -9.20 -8.20 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 11 18 – 20 10.90 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Sep 12 11 – 10 6.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 12 16 – 12 4.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 28 – 12 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Sep 18 Roosters 12.80
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 19 Cowboys 10.20

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.93 10.90 4.00
Tasman 14.34 12.86 1.50
Taranaki 8.00 7.70 0.30
Auckland 5.47 5.14 0.30
Hawke’s Bay 4.91 -0.57 5.50
Wellington 4.89 -4.62 9.50
Counties Manukau -0.43 7.86 -8.30
Otago -3.87 -4.84 1.00
Waikato -4.46 -6.96 2.50
Manawatu -4.50 -1.52 -3.00
Bay of Plenty -9.01 -9.77 0.80
Southland -10.43 -6.01 -4.40
North Harbour -10.97 -10.54 -0.40
Northland -12.86 -3.64 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 09 45 – 28 16.00 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 10 30 – 25 11.10 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 11 17 – 36 -2.50 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 12 28 – 20 -9.70 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 12 9 – 32 -10.80 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 12 29 – 14 13.80 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 13 35 – 29 14.90 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 13 42 – 17 9.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 16 Tasman 29.30
2 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 17 Wellington 12.80
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 18 Taranaki 16.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 Hawke’s Bay 17.90
5 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 19 Manawatu -1.90
6 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 19 Counties Manukau -8.40
7 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 20 Canterbury -21.90
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 20 Tasman 12.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 4.95 3.04 1.90
Western Province 4.66 4.93 -0.30
Blue Bulls 1.79 0.17 1.60
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -1.86 -1.75 -0.10
Pumas -6.80 -6.47 -0.30
Griquas -8.93 -7.81 -1.10
Kings -9.23 -9.44 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 11 32 – 24 -4.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Sep 12 27 – 37 0.90 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 12 28 – 36 0.80 FALSE
4 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 12 32 – 15 0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 18 Pumas 5.90
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Sep 18 Western Province 6.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 19 Lions 6.90
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Sep 19 Cheetahs 10.60

 

September 9, 2015

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.10 9.09 4.00
Broncos 8.92 4.03 4.90
Cowboys 7.48 9.52 -2.00
Storm 5.24 4.36 0.90
Bulldogs 2.84 0.21 2.60
Rabbitohs 0.77 13.06 -12.30
Sea Eagles 0.46 2.68 -2.20
Dragons -0.48 -1.74 1.30
Sharks -0.71 -10.76 10.00
Raiders -1.13 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.78 3.69 -6.50
Eels -5.07 -7.19 2.10
Wests Tigers -5.16 -13.13 8.00
Knights -5.46 -0.28 -5.20
Warriors -7.47 3.07 -10.50
Titans -9.20 -8.20 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 8 – 15 8.90 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 30 – 0 13.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 30 – 12 3.70 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 32 – 30 8.60 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 42 – 12 18.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 24 – 28 -0.40 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 12 – 14 2.50 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 26 – 22 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 11 Roosters 10.90
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Sep 12 Bulldogs 6.30
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 12 Broncos 4.40
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 Sharks 1.50

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.83 10.90 3.90
Tasman 12.85 12.86 -0.00
Taranaki 6.91 7.70 -0.80
Wellington 6.38 -4.62 11.00
Auckland 6.18 5.14 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.01 -0.57 5.60
Counties Manukau 1.16 7.86 -6.70
Waikato -3.92 -6.96 3.00
Otago -4.68 -4.84 0.20
Manawatu -5.80 -1.52 -4.30
Bay of Plenty -7.91 -9.77 1.90
Southland -10.98 -6.01 -5.00
Northland -11.47 -3.64 -7.80
North Harbour -12.57 -10.54 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 17 – 10 3.30 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 03 7 – 57 -9.30 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 04 17 – 34 -12.80 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 05 28 – 50 -2.60 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 05 3 – 53 -5.30 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 05 48 – 32 22.80 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 06 7 – 50 -7.80 TRUE
8 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 06 26 – 37 18.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 09 Auckland 16.00
2 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 10 Waikato 11.10
3 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 11 Tasman -2.50
4 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 12 Counties Manukau -9.70
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 12 Taranaki -10.80
6 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 12 Canterbury 13.80
7 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 13 Auckland 14.90
8 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 13 Manawatu 9.70

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 4.70 3.04 1.70
Western Province 4.36 4.93 -0.60
Blue Bulls 2.05 0.17 1.90
Sharks 1.81 3.43 -1.60
Cheetahs -1.53 -1.75 0.20
Pumas -6.39 -6.47 0.10
Griquas -9.34 -7.81 -1.50
Kings -9.56 -9.44 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 04 24 – 17 7.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 05 27 – 26 12.30 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 05 33 – 15 17.10 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Kings Sep 05 37 – 21 18.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 11 Cheetahs -4.50
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Sep 12 Sharks 0.90
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 12 Blue Bulls 0.80
4 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 12 Griquas 0.60

 

September 2, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 26

By

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.92 9.09 2.80
Broncos 10.03 4.03 6.00
Cowboys 6.63 9.52 -2.90
Storm 4.13 4.36 -0.20
Bulldogs 3.68 0.21 3.50
Rabbitohs 1.96 13.06 -11.10
Sea Eagles 0.13 2.68 -2.50
Dragons 0.00 -1.74 1.70
Sharks -0.38 -10.76 10.40
Raiders -1.40 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -3.79 3.69 -7.50
Knights -4.46 -0.28 -4.20
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -5.65 -13.13 7.50
Warriors -8.32 3.07 -11.40
Titans -8.35 -8.20 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 12 – 47 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 10 – 46 -4.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 28 – 35 -0.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 18 – 20 -5.70 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 14 – 6 -0.80 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 50 – 16 2.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 28 – 26 -6.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 34 – 18 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 Broncos 8.90
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 13.00
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 Panthers 3.70
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Dragons 8.60
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 Cowboys 18.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 Raiders -0.40
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Sharks 2.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 Bulldogs 16.00

 

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