Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 2, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.47 12.86 -0.40
Canterbury 11.16 10.90 0.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.63 -0.57 6.20
Auckland 4.43 5.14 -0.70
Counties Manukau 4.14 7.86 -3.70
Taranaki 3.43 7.70 -4.30
Wellington 2.36 -4.62 7.00
Manawatu -2.13 -1.52 -0.60
Waikato -2.17 -6.96 4.80
Otago -4.30 -4.84 0.50
Southland -6.95 -6.01 -0.90
Northland -8.33 -3.64 -4.70
Bay of Plenty -10.56 -9.77 -0.80
North Harbour -13.18 -10.54 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 26 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 41 – 21 18.30 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 11 – 35 8.30 FALSE
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 21 – 27 -2.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 27 – 34 15.80 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 29 – 0 11.50 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 10 – 43 0.40 FALSE
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 25 – 26 14.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 3.30
2 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 03 Canterbury -9.30
3 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 04 Tasman -12.80
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 05 Auckland -2.60
5 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 05 Wellington -5.30
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 05 Hawke’s Bay 22.80
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 06 Taranaki -7.80
8 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 06 Counties Manukau 18.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 4.79 3.04 1.70
Western Province 4.32 4.93 -0.60
Sharks 2.12 3.43 -1.30
Blue Bulls 2.05 0.17 1.90
Cheetahs -1.53 -1.75 0.20
Pumas -6.70 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.29 -7.81 -1.50
Kings -9.66 -9.44 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 11 – 41 -6.90 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 28 – 21 -2.90 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 32 – 46 -7.20 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 20 – 24 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 04 Blue Bulls 7.10
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 05 Sharks 12.30
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 05 Western Province 17.10
4 Lions vs. Kings Sep 05 Lions 18.00

 

August 26, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.32 12.86 -0.50
Canterbury 10.80 10.90 -0.10
Counties Manukau 7.05 7.86 -0.80
Taranaki 5.49 7.70 -2.20
Auckland 4.79 5.14 -0.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.72 -0.57 3.30
Wellington 0.79 -4.62 5.40
Manawatu -1.98 -1.52 -0.50
Southland -4.22 -6.01 1.80
Waikato -5.31 -6.96 1.60
Otago -6.35 -4.84 -1.50
Northland -6.76 -3.64 -3.10
Bay of Plenty -8.92 -9.77 0.80
North Harbour -14.41 -10.54 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Wellington Aug 20 0 – 43 -4.20 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 34 – 13 26.20 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 22 21 – 28 10.50 FALSE
4 Northland vs. Southland Aug 22 18 – 27 3.80 FALSE
5 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 22 22 – 39 -2.40 TRUE
6 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 23 30 – 24 2.70 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 20 – 15 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 Southland -0.70
2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 Tasman 18.30
3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Counties Manukau 8.30
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 Canterbury -2.00
5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 Taranaki 15.80
6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 Wellington 11.50
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 Bay of Plenty 0.40
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 Southland 14.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.60 4.93 -0.30
Lions 4.27 3.04 1.20
Sharks 2.36 3.43 -1.10
Blue Bulls 1.71 0.17 1.50
Cheetahs -1.81 -1.75 -0.10
Pumas -6.17 -6.47 0.30
Griquas -8.95 -7.81 -1.10
Kings -9.90 -9.44 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 13 – 15 -0.00 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 9 – 31 -2.70 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 16 – 31 2.40 FALSE
4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 47 – 29 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 Lions -6.90
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 Western Province -2.90
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 Blue Bulls -7.20
4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -8.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 25

By

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.80 9.09 0.70
Broncos 7.71 4.03 3.70
Cowboys 7.26 9.52 -2.30
Rabbitohs 4.27 13.06 -8.80
Bulldogs 3.96 0.21 3.80
Storm 3.50 4.36 -0.90
Sea Eagles 2.25 2.68 -0.40
Dragons 0.62 -1.74 2.40
Sharks -0.86 -10.76 9.90
Raiders -2.27 -7.09 4.80
Panthers -2.92 3.69 -6.60
Eels -4.32 -7.19 2.90
Knights -4.74 -0.28 -4.50
Warriors -6.20 3.07 -9.30
Wests Tigers -7.77 -13.13 5.40
Titans -8.96 -8.20 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 20 19 – 12 6.40 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 21 18 – 32 6.10 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Aug 22 40 – 18 7.90 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Aug 22 16 – 50 -5.60 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 22 12 – 10 5.60 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 23 28 – 12 -6.80 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 23 16 – 20 11.80 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 24 6 – 20 15.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 Broncos -0.40
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 Roosters -4.60
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -0.50
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 Bulldogs -5.70
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 Cowboys -0.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 Wests Tigers 2.40
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 Dragons -6.60
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 Raiders 3.60

 

August 19, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.79 12.86 -0.10
Canterbury 11.10 10.90 0.20
Counties Manukau 6.75 7.86 -1.10
Taranaki 5.78 7.70 -1.90
Auckland 4.50 5.14 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 1.41 -0.57 2.00
Manawatu -0.41 -1.52 1.10
Wellington -2.70 -4.62 1.90
Otago -5.04 -4.84 -0.20
Southland -5.37 -6.01 0.60
Northland -5.61 -3.64 -2.00
Waikato -6.88 -6.96 0.10
Bay of Plenty -9.39 -9.77 0.40
North Harbour -10.92 -10.54 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 13 23 – 23 -7.20 FALSE
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Aug 14 20 – 35 -15.80 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 14 20 – 11 4.80 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Wellington Aug 15 14 – 19 16.30 FALSE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 15 24 – 38 -11.70 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Aug 16 36 – 35 13.40 TRUE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 16 39 – 10 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Wellington Aug 20 Wellington -4.20
2 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Tasman 26.20
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 22 Manawatu 10.50
4 Northland vs. Southland Aug 22 Northland 3.80
5 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay -2.40
6 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 23 Auckland 2.70
7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 Canterbury 8.40

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.08 9.09 1.00
Broncos 7.44 4.03 3.40
Rabbitohs 5.66 13.06 -7.40
Storm 5.48 4.36 1.10
Cowboys 5.34 9.52 -4.20
Sea Eagles 3.34 2.68 0.70
Bulldogs 2.58 0.21 2.40
Dragons 0.57 -1.74 2.30
Raiders -0.71 -7.09 6.40
Sharks -1.84 -10.76 8.90
Panthers -2.87 3.69 -6.60
Warriors -4.28 3.07 -7.40
Eels -5.42 -7.19 1.80
Knights -6.71 -0.28 -6.40
Wests Tigers -6.79 -13.13 6.30
Titans -10.53 -8.20 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 18 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 14 32 – 6 7.30 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 15 18 – 24 4.40 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 15 24 – 10 4.00 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 15 28 – 18 19.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 36 – 26 -2.90 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 16 36 – 14 15.10 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Aug 17 2 – 30 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 20 Dragons 6.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 21 Rabbitohs 6.10
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Aug 22 Sharks 7.90
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Aug 22 Cowboys -5.60
5 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 22 Roosters 5.60
6 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 23 Raiders -6.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 23 Sea Eagles 11.80
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 24 Storm 15.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.04 4.93 0.10
Lions 3.84 3.04 0.80
Sharks 2.79 3.43 -0.60
Blue Bulls 1.27 0.17 1.10
Cheetahs -2.27 -1.75 -0.50
Pumas -6.27 -6.47 0.20
Griquas -8.49 -7.81 -0.70
Kings -9.80 -9.44 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 44 – 27 13.20 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 36 – 12 12.60 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 9 – 3 11.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 33 – 25 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 Pumas -0.00
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 Cheetahs -2.70
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 Sharks 2.40
4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 Western Province -0.30

 

August 12, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.86 12.86 0.00
Canterbury 10.90 10.90 0.00
Counties Manukau 7.86 7.86 0.00
Taranaki 7.70 7.70 0.00
Auckland 5.14 5.14 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -0.57 -0.57 0.00
Manawatu -1.52 -1.52 0.00
Northland -3.64 -3.64 0.00
Wellington -4.62 -4.62 0.00
Otago -4.84 -4.84 0.00
Southland -6.01 -6.01 0.00
Waikato -6.96 -6.96 0.00
Bay of Plenty -9.77 -9.77 0.00
North Harbour -10.54 -10.54 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 13 Auckland -7.20
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Aug 14 Tasman -15.80
3 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 4.80
4 Taranaki vs. Wellington Aug 15 Taranaki 16.30
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 15 Canterbury -11.70
6 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Aug 16 Counties Manukau 13.40
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 7.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.31 4.93 0.40
Lions 3.65 3.04 0.60
Sharks 3.04 3.43 -0.40
Blue Bulls 0.96 0.17 0.80
Cheetahs -2.54 -1.75 -0.80
Pumas -6.08 -6.47 0.40
Griquas -8.18 -7.81 -0.40
Kings -10.05 -9.44 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 07 19 – 43 -9.20 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 07 33 – 24 -6.40 FALSE
3 Kings vs. Lions Aug 08 14 – 51 -9.00 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 08 19 – 57 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 Lions 13.20
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 Blue Bulls 12.60
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 Western Province 11.30
4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 Sharks 16.60

 

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