August 26, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.32 12.86 -0.50
Canterbury 10.80 10.90 -0.10
Counties Manukau 7.05 7.86 -0.80
Taranaki 5.49 7.70 -2.20
Auckland 4.79 5.14 -0.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.72 -0.57 3.30
Wellington 0.79 -4.62 5.40
Manawatu -1.98 -1.52 -0.50
Southland -4.22 -6.01 1.80
Waikato -5.31 -6.96 1.60
Otago -6.35 -4.84 -1.50
Northland -6.76 -3.64 -3.10
Bay of Plenty -8.92 -9.77 0.80
North Harbour -14.41 -10.54 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Wellington Aug 20 0 – 43 -4.20 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 34 – 13 26.20 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 22 21 – 28 10.50 FALSE
4 Northland vs. Southland Aug 22 18 – 27 3.80 FALSE
5 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 22 22 – 39 -2.40 TRUE
6 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 23 30 – 24 2.70 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 20 – 15 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 Southland -0.70
2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 Tasman 18.30
3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Counties Manukau 8.30
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 Canterbury -2.00
5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 Taranaki 15.80
6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 Wellington 11.50
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 Bay of Plenty 0.40
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 Southland 14.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    nathan Hill

    the winners will be Bay Of Plenty, Tasman, Counties Manukau, Canterbury, Otago, Wellington, Waikato, Southland

    9 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I am happy to concede that the two Bay of Plenty games could go the other way: the suggested margins there indicate that the chances are close to 50:50 either way. As for Otago winning, with the 2014 winner playing at home against a team which finished near the bottom in 2014, I am happy with a margin suggesting a high probability of a Taranaki win. The whole point of my algorithmic prediction method is that it eliminates any subjectivity. Your other comment suggests you might not be a dispassionate observer.

      9 years ago

    • avatar
      Christie Nigrini

      Why do you say Otago is going to win? I’m not from New Zealand and do not know the teams all that well. But from what I could see on the web it looks like Taranaki is more likely to win.

      9 years ago

      • avatar
        David Scott

        Not me, I am predicting Taranaki. Nathan Hill, who seems to be an Otago fan, is predicting Otago.

        9 years ago