Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 31, 2013

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.78 9.03 0.80
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Chiefs 4.02 6.98 -3.00
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Bulls 3.94 2.55 1.40
Brumbies 3.07 -1.06 4.10
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds -0.70 0.46 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.16 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 26 20 – 19 -4.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Brumbies Jul 27 23 – 26 6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Aug 03 Chiefs 5.00

 

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July 24, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.98 -5.68 15.70
Rabbitohs 8.06 5.23 2.80
Sea Eagles 7.61 4.78 2.80
Knights 6.84 0.44 6.40
Bulldogs 5.06 7.33 -2.30
Storm 2.41 9.73 -7.30
Panthers 0.24 -6.58 6.80
Raiders -0.82 2.03 -2.80
Warriors -0.94 -10.01 9.10
Cowboys -1.83 7.05 -8.90
Titans -3.54 -1.85 -1.70
Dragons -4.21 -0.33 -3.90
Sharks -4.42 -1.78 -2.60
Broncos -5.73 -1.55 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.63 -3.71 -3.90
Eels -14.83 -8.82 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.76%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 19 14 – 24 -0.23 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Eels Jul 20 14 – 0 19.63 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 20 40 – 0 13.62 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Jul 21 14 – 32 1.88 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Jul 21 38 – 20 15.07 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 22 18 – 22 21.97 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 26 Cowboys 8.40
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 26 Bulldogs 24.40
3 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 27 Dragons 1.10
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jul 27 Rabbitohs -7.10
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 28 Warriors 1.10
6 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -0.20
7 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 28 Knights 1.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 Sea Eagles -10.70

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.19 9.03 1.20
Bulls 4.69 2.55 2.10
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Chiefs 3.61 6.98 -3.40
Brumbies 2.32 -1.06 3.40
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds -0.70 0.46 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.16 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jul 20 38 – 9 12.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Jul 21 15 – 13 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 26 Crusaders -4.10
2 Bulls vs. Brumbies Jul 27 Bulls 6.40

 

July 17, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 10.66 5.23 5.40
Roosters 7.34 -5.68 13.00
Sea Eagles 7.32 4.78 2.50
Bulldogs 5.06 7.33 -2.30
Knights 4.85 0.44 4.40
Storm 2.41 9.73 -7.30
Panthers 2.23 -6.58 8.80
Raiders -0.26 2.03 -2.30
Sharks -1.78 -1.78 0.00
Cowboys -1.83 7.05 -8.90
Warriors -1.92 -10.01 8.10
Titans -3.25 -1.85 -1.40
Broncos -5.73 -1.55 -4.20
Wests Tigers -6.65 -3.71 -2.90
Dragons -6.81 -0.33 -6.50
Eels -15.39 -8.82 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.54%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 12 18 – 19 0.94 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 13 10 – 17 -14.66 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jul 14 39 – 0 -0.81 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 15 14 – 34 -0.81 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 19 Warriors -0.20
2 Raiders vs. Eels Jul 20 Raiders 19.60
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 20 Roosters 13.60
4 Panthers vs. Knights Jul 21 Panthers 1.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Jul 21 Sea Eagles 15.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 22 Rabbitohs 22.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.85 9.03 -0.20
Bulls 4.69 2.55 2.10
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Chiefs 3.61 6.98 -3.40
Brumbies 2.84 -1.06 3.90
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds 0.65 0.46 0.20
Cheetahs -1.69 -4.16 2.50
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 12 25 – 17 14.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Jul 12 38 – 37 1.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 13 16 – 26 -3.30 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Jul 13 12 – 14 4.00 FALSE
5 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 13 21 – 15 -10.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Kings Jul 13 58 – 13 18.30 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 13 30 – 13 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions forthe Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jul 20 Crusaders 12.20
2 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Jul 21 Brumbies 8.50

 

July 10, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 10.66 5.23 5.40
Roosters 7.34 -5.68 13.00
Storm 6.39 9.73 -3.30
Sea Eagles 5.40 4.78 0.60
Knights 4.85 0.44 4.40
Panthers 3.00 -6.58 9.60
Bulldogs 1.08 7.33 -6.20
Cowboys 0.09 7.05 -7.00
Raiders -0.26 2.03 -2.30
Warriors -1.92 -10.01 8.10
Sharks -1.98 -1.78 -0.20
Titans -3.25 -1.85 -1.40
Broncos -5.54 -1.55 -4.00
Wests Tigers -6.65 -3.71 -2.90
Dragons -6.81 -0.33 -6.50
Eels -16.16 -8.82 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Jul 05 32 – 0 12.54 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jul 05 36 – 22 7.97 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Roosters Jul 06 0 – 36 -3.06 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 06 18 – 40 3.32 FALSE
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 07 26 – 18 3.19 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 07 12 – 18 2.41 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 07 30 – 13 17.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 08 50 – 10 22.57 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 12 Broncos 0.90
2 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 13 Panthers -14.70
3 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jul 14 Storm -0.80
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 15 Sea Eagles -0.80

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.38 9.03 0.40
Bulls 6.14 2.55 3.60
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Chiefs 3.07 6.98 -3.90
Stormers 2.55 3.34 -0.80
Sharks 2.29 4.57 -2.30
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -1.69 -4.16 2.50
Blues -2.68 -3.02 0.30
Hurricanes -2.82 4.40 -7.20
Highlanders -5.87 -3.41 -2.50
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -13.47 -10.00 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 05 43 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 06 44 – 49 7.60 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Jul 06 34 – 13 1.90 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Stormers Jul 06 12 – 24 -13.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Sharks Jul 06 20 – 19 7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 12 Crusaders 14.70
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Jul 12 Rebels 1.20
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Chiefs -3.30
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Jul 13 Waratahs 4.00
5 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 13 Brumbies -10.70
6 Sharks vs. Kings Jul 13 Sharks 18.30
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 13 Bulls -1.10

 

July 3, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 17, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 10.67 5.23 5.40
Storm 4.45 9.73 -5.30
Roosters 4.05 -5.68 9.70
Knights 4.01 0.44 3.60
Sea Eagles 3.66 4.78 -1.10
Bulldogs 1.92 7.33 -5.40
Cowboys 0.57 7.05 -6.50
Panthers 0.47 -6.58 7.00
Titans -0.72 -1.85 1.10
Raiders -0.74 2.03 -2.80
Warriors -1.93 -10.01 8.10
Sharks -2.58 -1.78 -0.80
Dragons -3.52 -0.33 -3.20
Broncos -3.59 -1.55 -2.00
Wests Tigers -6.05 -3.71 -2.30
Eels -14.42 -8.82 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.02%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jun 28 32 – 2 12.39 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 29 22 – 4 -11.99 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 29 25 – 10 6.85 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jun 30 46 – 16 4.04 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 30 18 – 16 7.21 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 30 24 – 4 4.56 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jul 01 18 – 12 4.61 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Jul 05 Storm 12.50
2 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jul 05 Sharks 8.00
3 Dragons vs. Roosters Jul 06 Roosters -3.10
4 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 06 Titans 3.30
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 07 Raiders 3.20
6 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 07 Bulldogs 2.40
7 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 07 Rabbitohs 17.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 08 Sea Eagles 22.60

 

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Super 15 Predictions, Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.56 9.03 -1.50
Bulls 6.64 2.55 4.10
Chiefs 4.90 6.98 -2.10
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Stormers 2.69 3.34 -0.60
Sharks 1.79 4.57 -2.80
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Blues -1.15 -3.02 1.90
Hurricanes -1.82 4.40 -6.20
Cheetahs -3.21 -4.16 0.90
Highlanders -6.88 -3.41 -3.50
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -13.62 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 34 – 22 8.70 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jun 29 12 – 40 -8.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Blues Jun 29 22 – 20 7.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Kings Jun 29 48 – 18 21.40 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Jun 29 28 – 3 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 05 Crusaders 5.20
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Hurricanes 7.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Jul 06 Cheetahs 1.90
4 Kings vs. Stormers Jul 06 Stormers -13.80
5 Bulls vs. Sharks Jul 06 Bulls 7.40

 

June 26, 2013

Super 15 Predictions for this week

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The Super 15 Predictions for this week were published earlier because of a reader request: Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

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