Posts written by David Scott (1769)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 26, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 8.91 5.23 3.70
Storm 7.44 9.73 -2.30
Roosters 3.91 -5.68 9.60
Sea Eagles 3.80 4.78 -1.00
Bulldogs 1.92 7.33 -5.40
Titans 1.88 -1.85 3.70
Knights 1.42 0.44 1.00
Raiders 1.02 2.03 -1.00
Panthers -0.35 -6.58 6.20
Cowboys -0.97 7.05 -8.00
Sharks -1.04 -1.78 0.70
Warriors -1.41 -10.01 8.60
Dragons -2.70 -0.33 -2.40
Broncos -4.11 -1.55 -2.60
Wests Tigers -9.05 -3.71 -5.30
Eels -14.42 -8.82 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.46%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 21 18 – 20 3.64 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 22 17 – 12 -8.21 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 23 10 – 30 -18.53 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Storm Jun 24 18 – 12 -2.83 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jun 28 Rabbitohs 12.40
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -12.00
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 29 Panthers 6.90
4 Knights vs. Titans Jun 30 Knights 4.00
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 30 Warriors 7.20
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 30 Cowboys 4.60
7 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jul 01 Roosters 4.60

 

June 19, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 8.76 5.23 3.50
Storm 8.33 9.73 -1.40
Sea Eagles 3.80 4.78 -1.00
Roosters 3.34 -5.68 9.00
Bulldogs 2.49 7.33 -4.80
Raiders 2.34 2.03 0.30
Knights 1.42 0.44 1.00
Titans 0.99 -1.85 2.80
Panthers -0.35 -6.58 6.20
Cowboys -0.97 7.05 -8.00
Sharks -1.04 -1.78 0.70
Warriors -1.41 -10.01 8.60
Dragons -2.70 -0.33 -2.40
Broncos -4.11 -1.55 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.37 -3.71 -6.70
Eels -14.27 -8.82 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 14 16 – 22 4.97 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 30 – 32 7.76 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 15 24 – 12 5.99 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 15 32 – 14 17.67 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 30 – 24 13.84 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Knights Jun 16 16 – 14 13.76 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Jun 16 12 – 23 14.31 FALSE
8 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 32 – 12 8.44 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 21 Bulldogs 3.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 22 Raiders -8.20
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 23 Rabbitohs -18.50
4 Titans vs. Storm Jun 24 Storm -2.80

 

View comments (4)
June 14, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.03 9.03 -3.00
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Stormers 1.11 3.34 -2.20
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Hurricanes -1.55 4.40 -5.90
Blues -1.62 -3.02 1.40
Cheetahs -1.63 -4.16 2.50
Highlanders -5.35 -3.41 -1.90
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -12.93 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 07 39 – 17 14.00 TRUE
2 Force vs. Waratahs Jun 09 13 – 28 -6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 Chiefs 8.70
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jun 29 Crusaders -8.90
3 Sharks vs. Blues Jun 29 Sharks 7.90
4 Bulls vs. Kings Jun 29 Bulls 21.40
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Jun 29 Stormers 5.20

 

June 12, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.55 5.23 4.30
Storm 9.50 9.73 -0.20
Roosters 5.88 -5.68 11.60
Sea Eagles 4.77 4.78 -0.00
Raiders 1.74 2.03 -0.30
Bulldogs 1.51 7.33 -5.80
Panthers 0.25 -6.58 6.80
Knights 0.24 0.44 -0.20
Titans 0.21 -1.85 2.10
Sharks -1.07 -1.78 0.70
Dragons -1.60 -0.33 -1.30
Cowboys -2.07 7.05 -9.10
Warriors -3.94 -10.01 6.10
Broncos -5.27 -1.55 -3.70
Wests Tigers -9.21 -3.71 -5.50
Eels -14.24 -8.82 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.61%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 07 24 – 38 -16.02 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 08 8 – 14 9.43 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jun 08 26 – 36 3.64 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 18 – 16 -5.76 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Jun 09 18 – 20 17.95 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 09 38 – 6 10.84 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 10 30 – 8 8.88 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 14 Dragons 5.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 Sea Eagles 7.80
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 15 Raiders 6.00
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 15 Sharks 17.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 Rabbitohs 13.80
6 Storm vs. Knights Jun 16 Storm 13.80
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Jun 16 Roosters 14.30
8 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 Broncos 8.40

 

View comments (2)
June 5, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.55 5.23 4.30
Storm 7.39 9.73 -2.30
Roosters 6.08 -5.68 11.80
Sea Eagles 5.55 4.78 0.80
Panthers 2.25 -6.58 8.80
Knights 1.78 0.44 1.30
Sharks 1.05 -1.78 2.80
Raiders 0.43 2.03 -1.60
Titans 0.21 -1.85 2.10
Bulldogs 0.15 7.33 -7.20
Cowboys -0.71 7.05 -7.80
Dragons -3.15 -0.33 -2.80
Broncos -3.96 -1.55 -2.40
Warriors -4.71 -10.01 5.30
Wests Tigers -11.21 -3.71 -7.50
Eels -14.44 -8.82 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.96%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 31 16 – 14 9.24 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 01 25 – 18 13.58 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 31 – 12 2.02 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jun 03 18 – 56 16.07 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 07 Roosters -16.00
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 08 Knights 9.40
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jun 08 Cowboys 3.60
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 Sea Eagles -5.80
5 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Jun 09 Panthers 18.00
6 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 09 Storm 10.80
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 10 Raiders 8.90

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 17, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.03 9.03 -3.00
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 3.54 -1.06 4.60
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Stormers 1.11 3.34 -2.20
Waratahs 0.97 -4.10 5.10
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Hurricanes -1.55 4.40 -5.90
Blues -1.62 -3.02 1.40
Cheetahs -1.63 -4.16 2.50
Highlanders -5.35 -3.41 -1.90
Rebels -8.01 -10.64 2.60
Force -8.38 -9.73 1.40
Kings -12.93 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 31 23 – 22 10.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 31 30 – 23 9.50 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Jun 01 38 – 28 -3.40 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Jun 01 33 – 20 10.20 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Kings Jun 01 19 – 11 18.20 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 01 25 – 30 -5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 07 Brumbies 14.00
2 Force vs. Waratahs Jun 09 Waratahs -6.90

 

May 30, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 10.20 5.23 5.00
Storm 7.39 9.73 -2.30
Roosters 6.08 -5.68 11.80
Sea Eagles 5.55 4.78 0.80
Panthers 2.25 -6.58 8.80
Broncos 1.45 -1.55 3.00
Knights 1.13 0.44 0.70
Sharks 1.05 -1.78 2.80
Cowboys 0.99 7.05 -6.10
Bulldogs 0.87 7.33 -6.50
Raiders 0.43 2.03 -1.60
Titans -1.49 -1.85 0.40
Dragons -3.87 -0.33 -3.50
Warriors -10.12 -10.01 -0.10
Wests Tigers -11.21 -3.71 -7.50
Eels -14.44 -8.82 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.36%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 24 22 – 20 -10.12 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos May 24 24 – 14 2.40 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Panthers May 25 0 – 19 2.72 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Storm May 25 18 – 26 5.99 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 25 16 – 10 10.53 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights May 26 28 – 12 -12.43 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Titans May 26 4 – 42 -1.07 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 27 14 – 12 -6.32 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 31 Bulldogs 9.20
2 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 01 Rabbitohs 13.60
3 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Titans 2.00
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jun 03 Broncos 16.10

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.79 9.03 -2.20
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 3.74 -1.06 4.80
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Stormers 1.92 3.34 -1.40
Waratahs 0.20 -4.10 4.30
Reds -0.05 0.46 -0.50
Blues -0.55 -3.02 2.50
Cheetahs -1.64 -4.16 2.50
Hurricanes -1.75 4.40 -6.10
Highlanders -6.41 -3.41 -3.00
Rebels -7.79 -10.64 2.90
Force -8.38 -9.73 1.40
Kings -13.74 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 24 28 – 19 -1.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 24 24 – 22 -6.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 25 13 – 20 1.00 FALSE
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 25 19 – 18 2.20 TRUE
5 Kings vs. Cheetahs May 25 22 – 24 -11.00 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds May 25 20 – 15 6.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Bulls May 25 16 – 18 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 31 Crusaders 10.60
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 31 Brumbies 9.50
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Jun 01 Blues -3.40
4 Reds vs. Rebels Jun 01 Reds 10.20
5 Stormers vs. Kings Jun 01 Stormers 18.20
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 01 Bulls -5.10

<
 

May 22, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.04 5.23 5.80
Roosters 7.48 -5.68 13.20
Sea Eagles 6.00 4.78 1.20
Storm 5.99 9.73 -3.70
Knights 3.97 0.44 3.50
Broncos 2.21 -1.55 3.80
Cowboys 2.20 7.05 -4.80
Sharks 0.22 -1.78 2.00
Bulldogs 0.11 7.33 -7.20
Panthers 0.08 -6.58 6.70
Raiders -0.03 2.03 -2.10
Dragons -1.70 -0.33 -1.40
Titans -5.18 -1.85 -3.30
Eels -10.75 -8.82 -1.90
Wests Tigers -12.42 -3.71 -8.70
Warriors -12.96 -10.01 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans May 17 32 – 6 8.36 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 17 54 – 10 23.94 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Eels May 18 32 – 12 11.93 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Warriors May 18 62 – 6 7.92 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Roosters May 18 8 – 12 0.03 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 19 30 – 20 3.43 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 19 44 – 4 0.44 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 20 10 – 10 5.61 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 24 Cowboys -10.10
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos May 24 Bulldogs 2.40
3 Dragons vs. Panthers May 25 Dragons 2.70
4 Roosters vs. Storm May 25 Roosters 6.00
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 25 Sea Eagles 10.50
6 Warriors vs. Knights May 26 Knights -12.40
7 Eels vs. Titans May 26 Titans -1.10
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 27 Rabbitohs -6.30

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.62 9.03 -1.40
Bulls 5.89 2.55 3.30
Chiefs 3.81 6.98 -3.20
Brumbies 3.10 -1.06 4.20
Sharks 2.33 4.57 -2.20
Stormers 2.01 3.34 -1.30
Waratahs 0.92 -4.10 5.00
Blues 0.08 -3.02 3.10
Reds -0.14 0.46 -0.60
Cheetahs -0.91 -4.16 3.20
Hurricanes -1.75 4.40 -6.10
Highlanders -6.51 -3.41 -3.10
Force -8.28 -9.73 1.50
Rebels -8.50 -10.64 2.10
Kings -14.46 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 17 12 – 17 -2.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Stormers May 17 30 – 21 -9.50 FALSE
3 Force vs. Sharks May 17 13 – 23 -6.00 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 18 23 – 3 8.10 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 18 28 – 22 -0.80 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders May 18 35 – 18 16.30 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds May 18 27 – 13 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 24 Crusaders -1.30
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 24 Waratahs -6.90
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 25 Blues 1.00
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 25 Force 2.20
5 Kings vs. Cheetahs May 25 Cheetahs -11.00
6 Stormers vs. Reds May 25 Stormers 6.20
7 Sharks vs. Bulls May 25 Bulls -1.10

 

View comments (1)
« Later posts
Earlier posts »