Posts written by David Scott (1773)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 20, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 8.92 6.98 1.90
Crusaders 7.80 9.03 -1.20
Brumbies 4.68 -1.06 5.70
Stormers 3.09 3.34 -0.20
Sharks 2.56 4.57 -2.00
Hurricanes 2.21 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 2.03 2.55 -0.50
Blues 0.26 -3.02 3.30
Reds -1.69 0.46 -2.20
Cheetahs -4.20 -4.16 -0.00
Highlanders -5.64 -3.41 -2.20
Waratahs -6.54 -4.10 -2.40
Force -8.60 -9.73 1.10
Kings -8.89 -10.00 1.10
Rebels -10.77 -10.64 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 19 – 23 -5.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 26 – 27 2.20 FALSE
3 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 15 24 – 35 -14.30 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 16 41 – 19 7.40 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 16 12 – 19 12.50 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Brumbies Mar 16 10 – 29 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 22 Chiefs 17.10
2 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 23 Crusaders 20.70
3 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 23 Reds 0.30
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 Cheetahs -0.40
5 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 Sharks 17.30
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 23 Stormers 2.40
7 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 24 Blues -2.80

 

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March 13, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.27 9.73 0.50
Cowboys 8.72 7.05 1.70
Rabbitohs 6.39 5.23 1.20
Bulldogs 5.65 7.33 -1.70
Sea Eagles 5.39 4.78 0.60
Knights 2.77 0.44 2.30
Raiders -0.58 2.03 -2.60
Dragons -0.87 -0.33 -0.50
Titans -1.60 -1.85 0.30
Sharks -2.04 -1.78 -0.30
Broncos -2.17 -1.55 -0.60
Panthers -3.97 -6.58 2.60
Wests Tigers -6.04 -3.71 -2.30
Eels -6.39 -8.82 2.40
Roosters -6.84 -5.68 -1.20
Warriors -12.44 -10.01 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 10 – 28 -6.41 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Mar 08 14 – 22 -1.83 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 09 40 – 10 5.69 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 09 12 – 24 4.78 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Mar 10 32 – 10 -4.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 10 30 – 10 14.56 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 10 12 – 10 4.57 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 11 42 – 10 8.65 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 14 Bulldogs -7.50
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 15 Dragons 5.80
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 16 Cowboys 3.00
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 16 Roosters -1.10
5 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 17 Titans 3.50
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Mar 17 Wests Tigers 2.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 17 Sea Eagles 7.10
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 18 Rabbitohs 12.90

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.19 6.98 2.20
Crusaders 6.63 9.03 -2.40
Sharks 4.55 4.57 -0.00
Bulls 3.19 2.55 0.60
Stormers 3.09 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.69 -1.06 3.70
Hurricanes 2.34 4.40 -2.10
Blues 0.26 -3.02 3.30
Reds -0.12 0.46 -0.60
Cheetahs -4.45 -4.16 -0.30
Highlanders -5.77 -3.41 -2.40
Waratahs -6.29 -4.10 -2.20
Kings -9.16 -10.00 0.80
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.77 -10.64 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 29 – 28 -2.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 13 – 23 -7.80 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 19 – 36 6.40 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 35 – 6 8.10 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 36 – 34 -2.90 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 12 – 21 -11.60 TRUE
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 21 – 28 2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Hurricanes -5.60
2 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Waratahs 2.20
3 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 15 Chiefs -14.30
4 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 16 Crusaders 7.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 16 Reds 12.50
6 Sharks vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Sharks 5.90

 

March 6, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.58 6.98 2.60
Crusaders 6.90 9.03 -2.10
Sharks 4.76 4.57 0.20
Stormers 2.70 3.34 -0.60
Bulls 2.42 2.55 -0.10
Hurricanes 2.07 4.40 -2.30
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Blues 1.02 -3.02 4.00
Reds -0.30 0.46 -0.80
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Waratahs -4.62 -4.10 -0.50
Cheetahs -6.32 -4.16 -2.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.60 -10.64 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 34 – 15 -7.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 31 – 26 9.10 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 18 – 12 0.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 45 – 3 15.70 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 36 – 26 17.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 12 – 6 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 Crusaders -2.30
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 Reds -7.80
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 Highlanders 6.40
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 Brumbies 8.10
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -2.90
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 Sharks -11.60
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 Blues 2.60

 
 

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February 28, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.73 9.73 0.00
Bulldogs 7.33 7.33 0.00
Cowboys 7.05 7.05 0.00
Rabbitohs 5.23 5.23 -0.00
Sea Eagles 4.78 4.78 0.00
Raiders 2.03 2.03 0.00
Knights 0.44 0.44 0.00
Dragons -0.33 -0.33 -0.00
Broncos -1.55 -1.55 0.00
Sharks -1.78 -1.78 0.00
Titans -1.85 -1.85 0.00
Wests Tigers -3.71 -3.71 -0.00
Roosters -5.68 -5.68 0.00
Panthers -6.58 -6.58 -0.00
Eels -8.82 -8.82 0.00
Warriors -10.01 -10.01 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 Rabbitohs -6.40
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Mar 08 Sea Eagles -1.80
3 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 09 Eels 5.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 09 Bulldogs 4.80
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Mar 10 Raiders -4.10
6 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 10 Storm 14.60
7 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 10 Sharks 4.60
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 11 Knights 8.60

 

February 27, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 7.47 6.98 0.50
Sharks 4.63 4.57 0.10
Bulls 3.05 2.55 0.50
Stormers 2.83 3.34 -0.50
Hurricanes 2.49 4.40 -1.90
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Reds -0.72 0.46 -1.20
Blues -1.11 -3.02 1.90
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Cheetahs -4.22 -4.16 -0.10
Waratahs -4.29 -4.10 -0.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.79 -9.73 -1.10
Rebels -10.93 -10.64 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 22 27 – 41 -7.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 22 13 – 30 -8.00 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 22 25 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 23 20 – 34 9.90 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 23 25 – 17 5.70 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Feb 23 22 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Force Feb 23 22 – 10 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 Crusaders -7.60
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 Waratahs 9.10
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 Reds 0.80
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 Chiefs 15.70
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 Bulls 17.80
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 Sharks 4.30

 

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February 21, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 6.98 6.98 -0.00
Sharks 4.57 4.57 0.00
Hurricanes 4.40 4.40 0.00
Stormers 3.34 3.34 0.00
Bulls 2.55 2.55 0.00
Brumbies 0.30 -1.06 1.40
Reds -0.90 0.46 -1.40
Blues -3.02 -3.02 0.00
Highlanders -3.41 -3.41 -0.00
Waratahs -4.10 -4.10 0.00
Cheetahs -4.16 -4.16 -0.00
Kings -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.21 -10.64 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Force Feb 15 30 – 23 1.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 16 24 – 6 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 22 Chiefs -7.90
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Brumbies -8.00
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 22 Bulls 1.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 23 Hurricanes 9.90
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 23 Reds 5.70
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Feb 23 Sharks -6.20
7 Kings vs. Force Feb 23 Kings 4.20

 

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February 14, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Welcome to the new Super Rugby season. This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

The introduction of a new team causes problems. I have arbitrarily assigned a rating of -10 to the Kings. This value worked reasonably well when the Rebels were introduced but obviously there will be uncertainty about games involving the Kings until they have some history.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 6.98 6.98 -0.00
Sharks 4.57 4.57 0.00
Hurricanes 4.40 4.40 0.00
Stormers 3.34 3.34 0.00
Bulls 2.55 2.55 0.00
Reds 0.46 0.46 -0.00
Brumbies -1.06 -1.06 -0.00
Blues -3.02 -3.02 0.00
Highlanders -3.41 -3.41 -0.00
Waratahs -4.10 -4.10 0.00
Cheetahs -4.16 -4.16 -0.00
Force -9.73 -9.73 0.00
Kings -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Rebels -10.64 -10.64 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Force Feb 15 Rebels 1.60
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 16 Brumbies 1.00

 

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September 26, 2012

NRL Predictions, Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

Here are the team ratings prior to the Grand Final, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.55 -1.86 10.40
Storm 7.63 4.63 3.00
Cowboys 6.35 -1.32 7.70
Sea Eagles 4.66 9.83 -5.20
Rabbitohs 4.48 0.04 4.40
Raiders 1.12 -8.40 9.50
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 40 – 12 3.56 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 32 – 8 0.27 TRUE

 

Prediction for the Grand Final

Here is my prediction for the Grand Final.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Storm Sep 30 Bulldogs 5.40

 

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September 18, 2012

NRL Predictions, Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the Preliminary Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department
home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 6.65 -1.86 8.50
Sea Eagles 6.61 9.83 -3.20
Rabbitohs 6.38 0.04 6.30
Cowboys 6.35 -1.32 7.70
Storm 5.67 4.63 1.00
Raiders 1.12 -8.40 9.50
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.11%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Sep 14 22 – 12 3.77 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Sep 15 38 – 16 7.44 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 Storm 3.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 Bulldogs 0.30

 

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