Posts written by David Scott (1773)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 13, 2012

NRL Predictions, Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Finals Week 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 6.85 -1.32 8.20
Bulldogs 6.65 -1.86 8.50
Sea Eagles 6.12 9.83 -3.70
Storm 5.67 4.63 1.00
Rabbitohs 5.22 0.04 5.20
Raiders 2.28 -8.40 10.70
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.71%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 07 16 – 10 4.85 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 08 24 – 16 4.37 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 08 33 – 16 11.43 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 09 34 – 16 7.08 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Sep 14 Sea Eagles 3.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Sep 15 Rabbitohs 7.40

 

September 7, 2012

NRL Predictions, Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Finals Week 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 6.56 -1.86 8.40
Cowboys 6.40 -1.32 7.70
Sea Eagles 6.21 9.83 -3.60
Rabbitohs 5.51 0.04 5.50
Storm 5.38 4.63 0.80
Raiders 1.41 -8.40 9.80
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.53 5.57 -6.10
Sharks -1.17 -7.97 6.80
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 31 6 – 18 1.10 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 31 19 – 12 11.07 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Sep 01 16 – 24 -3.13 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Sep 01 6 – 26 -0.51 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Sep 01 42 – 10 13.54 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 02 22 – 36 -0.99 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Sep 02 22 – 42 -2.13 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 8 – 29 -0.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 07 Bulldogs 4.90
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 08 Cowboys 11.40
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 08 Raiders 7.10
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 09 Storm 4.40

 

August 30, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 26, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 5.82 9.83 -4.00
Cowboys 5.36 -1.32 6.70
Bulldogs 5.08 -1.86 6.90
Rabbitohs 4.46 0.04 4.40
Storm 3.82 4.63 -0.80
Knights 1.06 0.77 0.30
Raiders -0.02 -8.40 8.40
Sharks -0.13 -7.97 7.80
Broncos -0.21 5.57 -5.80
Wests Tigers -1.19 4.52 -5.70
Titans -1.81 -11.80 10.00
Dragons -2.04 4.36 -6.40
Roosters -3.95 0.25 -4.20
Eels -6.57 -4.23 -2.30
Warriors -6.65 5.28 -11.90
Panthers -6.77 -3.40 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 24 16 – 6 10.62 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 24 34 – 6 -6.05 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Titans Aug 25 36 – 22 -3.21 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 25 38 – 6 4.75 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 25 22 – 14 8.96 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 44 – 20 -2.51 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 26 38 – 6 12.39 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 27 20 – 18 9.68 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 31 Knights 1.10
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 31 Broncos 11.10
3 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Sep 01 Sea Eagles -3.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Sep 01 Storm -0.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Sep 01 Bulldogs 13.50
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 02 Cowboys -1.00
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Sep 02 Raiders -2.10
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 Dragons -0.00

 

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August 23, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 25, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 7.81 -1.86 9.70
Sea Eagles 5.87 9.83 -4.00
Cowboys 5.44 -1.32 6.80
Storm 4.44 4.63 -0.20
Rabbitohs 2.89 0.04 2.80
Knights 0.98 0.77 0.20
Wests Tigers 0.94 4.52 -3.60
Broncos -0.25 5.57 -5.80
Titans -0.43 -11.80 11.40
Sharks -0.75 -7.97 7.20
Raiders -2.75 -8.40 5.60
Dragons -4.22 4.36 -8.60
Warriors -4.47 5.28 -9.70
Eels -5.00 -4.23 -0.80
Roosters -6.08 0.25 -6.30
Panthers -8.15 -3.40 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.52%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 17 18 – 19 -0.04 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 17 23 – 22 13.35 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 18 24 – 20 8.56 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 18 20 – 7 -1.45 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Eels Aug 19 24 – 16 9.27 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 19 16 – 18 10.12 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 19 42 – 20 6.99 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 20 22 – 32 -4.24 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 24 Sea Eagles 10.60
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 24 Bulldogs -6.10
3 Panthers vs. Titans Aug 25 Titans -3.20
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 25 Dragons 4.70
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 25 Cowboys 9.00
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 Wests Tigers -2.50
7 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 26 Rabbitohs 12.40
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 27 Storm 9.70

 

August 15, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.79 -1.86 10.70
Cowboys 4.98 -1.32 6.30
Sea Eagles 4.67 9.83 -5.20
Storm 4.36 4.63 -0.30
Rabbitohs 4.05 0.04 4.00
Knights 2.18 0.77 1.40
Wests Tigers -0.05 4.52 -4.60
Broncos -0.18 5.57 -5.70
Titans -0.33 -11.80 11.50
Sharks -1.90 -7.97 6.10
Raiders -2.38 -8.40 6.00
Warriors -3.50 5.28 -8.80
Dragons -3.76 4.36 -8.10
Eels -5.10 -4.23 -0.90
Roosters -6.44 0.25 -6.70
Panthers -9.12 -3.40 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.74%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 6 – 23 2.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 10 24 – 16 9.42 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 11 36 – 22 4.28 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 11 22 – 12 7.87 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 11 52 – 12 7.83 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 12 10 – 20 -0.76 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 12 22 – 14 14.51 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 13 26 – 4 6.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 17 Storm -0.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 17 Bulldogs 13.30
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 18 Raiders 8.60
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 18 Rabbitohs -1.50
5 Titans vs. Eels Aug 19 Titans 9.30
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 19 Warriors 10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 19 Sea Eagles 7.00
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 20 Cowboys -4.20

 

August 9, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 9.31 -1.86 11.20
Rabbitohs 5.61 0.04 5.60
Storm 4.47 4.63 -0.20
Sea Eagles 3.11 9.83 -6.70
Cowboys 2.40 -1.32 3.70
Knights 0.90 0.77 0.10
Wests Tigers -0.22 4.52 -4.70
Titans -0.44 -11.80 11.40
Sharks -0.63 -7.97 7.30
Broncos -0.70 5.57 -6.30
Warriors -0.93 5.28 -6.20
Raiders -3.12 -8.40 5.30
Dragons -3.59 4.36 -7.90
Roosters -5.66 0.25 -5.90
Eels -5.88 -4.23 -1.60
Panthers -8.38 -3.40 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.25%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 03 26 – 10 -0.16 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 04 46 – 6 13.04 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 04 10 – 26 -1.61 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Aug 04 6 – 8 4.90 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 05 4 – 45 12.81 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 05 28 – 12 -0.57 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 05 18 – 22 -1.09 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Aug 06 51 – 26 7.33 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 Rabbitohs 2.50
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 10 Storm 9.40
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 11 Eels 4.30
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 11 Wests Tigers 7.90
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 11 Cowboys 7.80
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 12 Raiders -0.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 12 Bulldogs 14.50
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 13 Knights 6.00

 

August 1, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 22, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.16 -1.86 10.00
Rabbitohs 5.37 0.04 5.30
Warriors 3.38 5.28 -1.90
Cowboys 2.95 -1.32 4.30
Sea Eagles 2.56 9.83 -7.30
Storm 2.32 4.63 -2.30
Knights 2.05 0.77 1.30
Broncos 0.63 5.57 -4.90
Titans -0.21 -11.80 11.60
Wests Tigers -1.64 4.52 -6.20
Dragons -2.30 4.36 -6.70
Raiders -4.45 -8.40 3.90
Eels -4.47 -4.23 -0.20
Sharks -4.93 -7.97 3.00
Panthers -6.22 -3.40 -2.80
Roosters -6.96 0.25 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.58%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 27 26 – 18 -1.66 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Titans Jul 27 16 – 36 1.14 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 28 32 – 18 8.89 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 28 24 – 22 -1.36 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 20 – 21 7.08 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 6 – 36 3.33 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 29 32 – 6 8.75 TRUE
8 Broncos vs. Eels Jul 30 22 – 42 15.23 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 03 Dragons -0.20
2 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 04 Storm 13.00
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 04 Bulldogs -1.60
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Aug 04 Cowboys 4.90
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 05 Warriors 12.80
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 05 Broncos -0.60
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 05 Rabbitohs -1.10
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Aug 06 Wests Tigers 7.30

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 24

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Team Ratings for Week 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.02 10.46 -1.40
Sharks 6.73 0.87 5.90
Stormers 3.74 6.59 -2.90
Chiefs 3.47 -1.17 4.60
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Bulls 2.93 4.16 -1.20
Reds 0.41 5.03 -4.60
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 27 20 – 17 -1.80 FALSE
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 28 19 – 26 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Aug 04 Chiefs 1.20

 

July 25, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 7.75 -1.86 9.60
Rabbitohs 3.99 0.04 3.90
Warriors 3.65 5.28 -1.60
Broncos 3.45 5.57 -2.10
Cowboys 3.36 -1.32 4.70
Storm 3.09 4.63 -1.50
Sea Eagles 2.29 9.83 -7.50
Wests Tigers -0.26 4.52 -4.80
Knights -0.61 0.77 -1.40
Raiders -1.78 -8.40 6.60
Titans -1.90 -11.80 9.90
Dragons -3.07 4.36 -7.40
Sharks -4.28 -7.97 3.70
Roosters -5.26 0.25 -5.50
Panthers -6.87 -3.40 -3.50
Eels -7.28 -4.23 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.33%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 12 – 20 0.37 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 20 14 – 10 -1.77 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Knights Jul 21 19 – 24 11.38 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Storm Jul 21 16 – 10 -8.13 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 21 36 – 14 9.58 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 22 4 – 36 8.47 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 22 28 – 16 1.16 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 29 – 16 7.19 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 27 Storm -1.70
2 Roosters vs. Titans Jul 27 Roosters 1.10
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 28 Bulldogs 8.90
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 28 Warriors -1.40
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 Sharks 7.10
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 Raiders 3.30
7 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 29 Rabbitohs 8.80
8 Broncos vs. Eels Jul 30 Broncos 15.20

 

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Super 15 Predictions, Week 23

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Team Ratings for Week 23

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.41 10.46 -1.10
Sharks 5.91 0.87 5.00
Stormers 4.55 6.59 -2.00
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Chiefs 3.09 -1.17 4.30
Bulls 2.93 4.16 -1.20
Reds 0.41 5.03 -4.60
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Jul 21 28 – 13 10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sharks Jul 21 17 – 30 1.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 27 Crusaders -1.80
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 28 Stormers 3.10

 

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