Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 31, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.76 -0.89 7.60
Leicester Tigers 4.41 6.13 -1.70
Sale Sharks 3.71 6.46 -2.80
Harlequins 3.23 1.93 1.30
Saracens 2.66 6.82 -4.20
Bristol 2.29 1.00 1.30
Northampton Saints 1.56 2.66 -1.10
Bath -0.54 -1.26 0.70
Gloucester -3.58 -1.45 -2.10
Newcastle Falcons -9.75 -10.63 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 3 – 24 4.00 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 21 – 23 6.60 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 43 – 0 2.30 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 24 – 25 1.60 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 14 – 16 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 04 Sale Sharks 13.30
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 04 Harlequins 19.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Nov 05 Northampton Saints 8.10
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 05 Saracens 4.30
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 06 Exeter Chiefs 10.50

 

October 26, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.92 9.00 1.90
Munster 10.48 10.54 -0.10
Leinster 9.21 10.73 -1.50
Stormers 8.19 8.93 -0.70
Ulster 6.31 7.80 -1.50
Glasgow 5.71 4.19 1.50
Connacht 2.47 3.17 -0.70
Sharks 0.92 0.85 0.10
Edinburgh -1.95 -2.26 0.30
Lions -3.53 -4.26 0.70
Scarlets -4.16 -2.23 -1.90
Benetton -4.62 -5.12 0.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.66 -5.16 -0.50
Ospreys -7.10 -7.79 0.70
Dragons -8.45 -8.14 -0.30
Zebre -18.76 -20.25 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 21 36 – 40 -24.00 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Oct 22 34 – 26 15.00 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 17 – 22 -1.90 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 22 33 – 35 -11.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Oct 22 22 – 23 4.00 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Sharks Oct 22 34 – 21 13.70 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Scarlets Oct 22 63 – 21 15.20 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 23 43 – 25 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 Ospreys 15.70
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 Connacht 0.80
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 Stormers 16.30
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 Leinster 12.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 Edinburgh 5.60
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 Munster -11.10
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 Cardiff Rugby -0.80
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 Bulls -0.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 7.09 6.46 0.60
Leicester Tigers 4.15 6.13 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.38 -0.89 4.30
Bristol 3.06 1.00 2.10
Harlequins 2.46 1.93 0.50
Northampton Saints 1.94 2.66 -0.70
Saracens 0.53 6.82 -6.30
Bath -0.28 -1.26 1.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.13 -10.63 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 14 – 18 -2.30 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 27 – 33 7.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 16 – 25 10.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 17 – 24 5.20 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 22 – 14 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 Gloucester 4.00
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 Exeter Chiefs 2.30
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 Bath 1.60
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 Northampton Saints -6.10

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

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Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 21.78 16.32 5.50
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 17.82 16.35 1.50
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 7.15 4.22 2.90
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Argentina 2.66 1.23 1.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 6 – 44 -17.30 TRUE
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 15 – 16 -11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

Here are the predictions for the RWC 2023 Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. England Oct 28 England -4.50
2 New Zealand vs. South Africa Oct 29 New Zealand 4.00

 

October 16, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately I missed Round 1. I have been travelling and lacking internet access at times.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.02 6.46 -0.40
Leicester Tigers 5.23 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 3.75 -0.89 4.60
Northampton Saints 3.10 2.66 0.40
Saracens 2.18 6.82 -4.60
Harlequins 2.09 1.93 0.20
Bristol 1.90 1.00 0.90
Gloucester -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Bath -1.93 -1.26 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -9.96 -10.63 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 14 25 – 14 0.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 14 65 – 10 -1.70 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 15 34 – 26 15.40 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 15 29 – 28 2.60 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Oct 15 20 – 15 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 Gloucester -2.30
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 Northampton Saints 7.20
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 Saracens 10.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 Leicester Tigers 5.20
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 Harlequins 4.30

 

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Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 20.88 16.32 4.60
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 18.36 16.35 2.00
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 6.62 4.22 2.40
Argentina 3.56 1.23 2.30
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ireland vs. New Zealand Oct 15 24 – 28 -1.90 TRUE
2 Wales vs. Argentina Oct 15 17 – 29 0.80 FALSE
3 France vs. South Africa Oct 16 28 – 29 4.30 FALSE
4 England vs. Fiji Oct 16 30 – 24 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 New Zealand -17.30
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 South Africa -11.70

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.63 8.72 1.90
Hawke’s Bay 6.22 5.12 1.10
Canterbury 6.01 9.44 -3.40
Waikato 5.30 3.71 1.60
Taranaki 5.09 -2.98 8.10
Bay of Plenty 3.52 4.55 -1.00
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 3.00 2.15 0.80
Tasman 2.17 2.20 -0.00
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 13 23 – 16 0.70 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 13 24 – 25 9.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Taranaki 1.90

 

October 9, 2023

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Cup Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 20.71 16.32 4.40
Ireland 18.78 15.46 3.30
South Africa 17.93 16.35 1.60
France 15.25 12.48 2.80
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 6.68 4.22 2.50
Wales 3.79 0.75 3.00
Argentina 2.95 1.23 1.70
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji -0.05 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Uruguay Oct 05 73 – 0 33.90 TRUE
2 France vs. Italy Oct 06 60 – 7 29.90 TRUE
3 Wales vs. Georgia Oct 07 43 – 19 6.80 TRUE
4 England vs. Samoa Oct 07 18 – 17 8.20 TRUE
5 Ireland vs. Scotland Oct 07 36 – 14 9.30 TRUE
6 Japan vs. Argentina Oct 08 27 – 39 -7.80 TRUE
7 Fiji vs. Portugal Oct 08 23 – 24 14.60 FALSE
8 Tonga vs. Romania Oct 08 45 – 24 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ireland vs. New Zealand Oct 15 New Zealand -1.90
2 Wales vs. Argentina Oct 15 Wales 0.80
3 France vs. South Africa Oct 16 France 4.30
4 England vs. Fiji Oct 16 England 6.70

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.41 8.72 2.70
Canterbury 6.71 9.44 -2.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.44 5.12 0.30
Waikato 5.30 3.71 1.60
Taranaki 4.39 -2.98 7.40
Bay of Plenty 3.52 4.55 -1.00
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 3.00 2.15 0.80
Tasman 2.17 2.20 -0.00
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 06 29 – 24 7.20 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 07 32 – 28 10.60 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 07 34 – 18 3.30 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 28 – 38 3.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Taranaki 0.70
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 13 Wellington 9.00

 

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