Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 18, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 8.29 6.88 1.40
Stade Toulousain 7.16 6.34 0.80
Toulon 5.38 4.09 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.72 5.27 -0.50
Stade Francais 3.43 -1.05 4.50
Lyon 3.27 3.10 0.20
Montpellier 3.21 4.18 -1.00
Racing 92 2.99 4.86 -1.90
Clermont 1.69 4.05 -2.40
Castres Olympique 0.69 2.87 -2.20
Aviron Bayonnais -0.64 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -1.61 -2.12 0.50
USA Perpignan -4.64 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -6.66 -4.20 -2.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Apr 15 22 – 27 -3.40 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 15 26 – 6 14.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Apr 15 19 – 28 10.30 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 15 31 – 28 5.00 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Apr 15 23 – 18 3.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Apr 15 36 – 31 11.00 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Apr 15 37 – 15 15.90 TRUE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier Apr 22 Aviron Bayonnais 2.70
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Apr 22 Bordeaux Begles 8.00
3 Brive vs. Section Paloise Apr 22 Brive 1.40
4 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Apr 22 Castres Olympique 1.80
5 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Apr 22 La Rochelle 13.10
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 22 Stade Francais 2.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 22 Racing 92 -1.10

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 11.63 8.81 2.80
Hurricanes 10.42 9.59 0.80
Brumbies 7.32 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.60 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -1.27 -2.50 1.20
Western Force -5.98 -5.54 -0.40
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.33 -10.50 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.27 -8.91 -2.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 28 – 40 -5.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 43 – 28 20.70 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 17 – 33 3.80 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 36 – 16 7.10 TRUE

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 21 Chiefs 26.50
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Apr 21 Crusaders -17.80
3 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 22 Blues 20.00
4 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 22 Highlanders -3.50

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.71 7.93 -1.20
Sale Sharks 5.08 4.14 0.90
London Irish 3.88 -1.65 5.50
Harlequins 1.61 3.92 -2.30
Saracens 1.31 -5.00 6.30
Northampton Saints 0.36 3.99 -3.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -0.39 -2.43 2.00
Gloucester -1.16 5.92 -7.10
Exeter Chiefs -1.61 3.67 -5.30
Bath -4.85 -9.15 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -8.00 -8.76 0.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Apr 16 20 – 36 0.80 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Apr 16 24 – 33 10.20 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 16 48 – 20 12.50 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 16 62 – 19 9.70 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 16 38 – 29 2.80 TRUE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Apr 23 Exeter Chiefs 3.30
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Apr 23 Sale Sharks -1.70
3 Harlequins vs. Bath Apr 23 Harlequins 11.00
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 23 Northampton Saints -3.90
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Apr 23 Saracens 1.90

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 10.22 2.84 7.40
Cheetahs 8.01 4.67 3.30
Bulls 0.45 3.43 -3.00
Griquas -0.91 1.39 -2.30
Sharks -1.28 -1.30 0.00
Western Province -2.99 -3.24 0.30
Lions -8.62 -7.79 -0.80
Griffons -14.87 -10.00 -4.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 15 20 – 24 3.40 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 17 – 26 -6.60 TRUE
3 Griffons vs. Pumas Apr 16 6 – 64 -15.90 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 17 18 – 25 -3.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Apr 21 Cheetahs 13.30
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Apr 22 Pumas 17.20
3 Bulls vs. Lions Apr 23 Bulls 13.10
4 Griquas vs. Griffons Apr 23 Griquas 18.00
April 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.92 12.99 1.90
Rabbitohs 9.27 9.35 -0.10
Storm 8.80 11.21 -2.40
Roosters 5.11 7.64 -2.50
Eels 3.56 6.78 -3.20
Raiders 2.27 1.98 0.30
Cowboys 2.01 6.23 -4.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -1.11 -2.73 1.60
Broncos -1.64 -5.92 4.30
Sea Eagles -4.39 -5.26 0.90
Titans -6.07 -6.32 0.20
Dolphins -6.08 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -7.94 -11.12 3.20
Bulldogs -8.12 -8.29 0.20
Knights -11.15 -9.53 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.76 -13.52 0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 28 – 8 4.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 16 – 50 -11.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 22 – 32 13.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 44 – 12 20.80 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 14 – 20 0.00 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 20 – 18 -3.10 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 34 – 24 1.60 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 22 – 28 -14.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Apr 13 Rabbitohs -12.30
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 14 Roosters -0.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 14 Storm -10.20
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 15 Cowboys -3.90
5 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -23.10
6 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 15 Broncos -1.40
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Apr 16 Raiders 6.40
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 16 Eels 14.70

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Hurricanes 11.18 9.59 1.60
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Brumbies 7.60 6.64 1.00
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.29 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -10.97 -8.91 -2.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 38 – 21 32.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 24 – 52 -1.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 14 – 29 -3.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 17 – 54 -12.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 Reds -5.80
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 Brumbies 20.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 Waratahs 7.10

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 7.81 4.67 3.10
Pumas 7.61 2.84 4.80
Bulls -0.10 3.43 -3.50
Sharks -0.74 -1.30 0.60
Griquas -1.22 1.39 -2.60
Western Province -2.79 -3.24 0.50
Lions -8.31 -7.79 -0.50
Griffons -12.27 -10.00 -2.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Apr 08 40 – 3 0.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Apr 08 19 – 12 -6.20 FALSE
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Apr 09 47 – 28 12.50 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 10 15 – 52 -8.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 15 Sharks 3.40
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 Cheetahs -6.60
3 Griffons vs. Pumas Apr 16 Pumas -15.90
4 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 17 Griquas -3.10
April 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.16 12.99 1.20
Rabbitohs 7.95 9.35 -1.40
Storm 7.83 11.21 -3.40
Roosters 6.08 7.64 -1.60
Eels 4.17 6.78 -2.60
Cowboys 3.40 6.23 -2.80
Raiders 1.81 1.98 -0.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -0.55 -2.73 2.20
Broncos -1.17 -5.92 4.80
Sea Eagles -3.63 -5.26 1.60
Titans -6.63 -6.32 -0.30
Bulldogs -6.80 -8.29 1.50
Warriors -7.34 -11.12 3.80
Dolphins -7.47 -10.00 2.50
Knights -11.76 -9.53 -2.20
Wests Tigers -13.38 -13.52 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 30 28 – 20 4.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 31 12 – 53 -5.50 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Mar 31 10 – 18 4.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 01 32 – 32 12.80 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Apr 01 38 – 12 7.70 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 46 – 12 12.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 02 30 – 32 17.00 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 02 15 – 14 -8.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 Storm 4.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 Rabbitohs -11.80
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 Cowboys 13.90
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 Panthers 20.80
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 Broncos 0.00
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 Dragons -3.10
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 Knights 1.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 Eels -14.50
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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.46 17.95 -0.50
Blues 12.31 12.34 -0.00
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Hurricanes 10.70 9.59 1.10
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.47 5.04 -1.60
Reds 1.25 1.89 -0.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -5.60 -6.19 0.60
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -11.60 -8.91 -2.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 17 – 45 -10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 12 – 25 -10.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 38 – 28 -1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 20 – 13 1.50 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 40 – 36 12.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 45 – 42 23.20 TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 Crusaders 32.60
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 Brumbies -1.90
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 Hurricanes -3.70
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 Blues -12.40

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 8.53 2.84 5.70
Cheetahs 5.97 4.67 1.30
Griquas 1.07 1.39 -0.30
Sharks -1.65 -1.30 -0.30
Bulls -2.39 3.43 -5.80
Western Province -3.27 -3.24 -0.00
Lions -6.48 -7.79 1.30
Griffons -11.78 -10.00 -1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Bulls Apr 01 32 – 28 -6.90 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Apr 01 21 – 61 7.20 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 02 34 – 22 -2.90 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Griquas Apr 02 13 – 32 2.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Apr 08 Bulls 0.50
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Apr 08 Pumas -6.20
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Apr 09 Western Province 12.50
4 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 10 Cheetahs -8.40
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