Posts written by David Scott (1769)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 4, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.41 14.53 1.90
Roosters 14.12 10.25 3.90
Panthers 11.60 8.88 2.70
Rabbitohs 10.50 7.73 2.80
Eels 7.91 1.68 6.20
Raiders 1.07 6.98 -5.90
Warriors -1.53 -1.84 0.30
Sharks -1.75 -0.76 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.76 -4.77 2.00
Dragons -3.46 -4.95 1.50
Knights -6.39 -2.61 -3.80
Wests Tigers -6.76 -3.07 -3.70
Titans -6.91 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -10.36 -8.05 -2.30
Broncos -10.51 -11.16 0.60
Bulldogs -13.16 -7.62 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 20 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 40 – 14 20.10 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 36 – 28 -2.50 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 28 – 16 18.60 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 10 – 32 -17.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 4 – 38 -14.10 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 24 – 20 9.90 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 8 – 16 9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 Storm -2.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 Panthers 16.30
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 Roosters -3.20
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 Raiders 10.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 Wests Tigers 3.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 Cowboys 3.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 Sea Eagles 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 Dragons 12.70

 

April 28, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.64 3.22 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.07 6.21 -1.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.83 -3.22 2.40
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 146 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 41 – 30 2.90 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 46 – 32 7.10 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 34 – 16 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 08 Bordeaux-Begles -3.50
2 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 08 Brive 4.30
3 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 Lyon Rugby -0.00
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 08 Montpellier 0.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 08 Racing-Metro 92 3.90
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 08 Stade Toulousain -0.30
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 08 Section Paloise -6.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.88 14.49 0.40
Blues 7.24 7.80 -0.60
Hurricanes 6.14 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 4.71 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 3.53 1.47 2.10
Highlanders 3.52 2.70 0.80
Reds 2.75 1.59 1.20
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.52 -13.05 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 23 26 – 24 4.40 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Reds Apr 23 30 – 27 -9.70 FALSE
3 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 24 25 – 36 2.00 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 29 – 6 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Apr 30 Hurricanes 8.10
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 01 Blues 8.00
3 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 01 Brumbies 20.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.03 7.35 -0.30
Harlequins 4.29 -1.08 5.40
Bristol 4.05 1.28 2.80
Sale Sharks 3.16 4.96 -1.80
Northampton Saints 1.34 -2.48 3.80
Wasps -1.28 5.66 -6.90
Bath -1.93 2.14 -4.10
Gloucester -2.56 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -3.79 -6.14 2.30
London Irish -5.84 -8.05 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -8.02 -10.00 2.00
Worcester Warriors -9.55 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 24 12 – 20 2.70 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 24 21 – 25 -5.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 25 35 – 24 9.80 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 25 18 – 23 0.00 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 25 32 – 35 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bath Apr 26 39 – 29 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol May 09 Bristol -1.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors May 09 Exeter Chiefs 21.10
3 Harlequins vs. Wasps May 09 Harlequins 10.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish May 09 Newcastle Falcons 2.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 09 Northampton Saints 8.40
6 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 09 Sale Sharks 11.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.87 14.53 1.30
Roosters 12.41 10.25 2.20
Panthers 12.19 8.88 3.30
Rabbitohs 9.67 7.73 1.90
Eels 7.46 1.68 5.80
Raiders 1.89 6.98 -5.10
Warriors -0.99 -1.84 0.90
Sharks -1.21 -0.76 -0.40
Dragons -1.96 -4.95 3.00
Sea Eagles -3.36 -4.77 1.40
Knights -4.68 -2.61 -2.10
Titans -5.98 -7.22 1.20
Wests Tigers -8.26 -3.07 -5.20
Cowboys -10.91 -8.05 -2.90
Broncos -11.44 -11.16 -0.30
Bulldogs -12.71 -7.62 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Knights Apr 22 24 – 6 20.30 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 30 – 40 -13.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 23 46 – 6 18.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 12 – 18 18.70 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 24 26 – 24 -12.30 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 6 – 40 4.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 34 – 10 15.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 42 – 20 19.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 Rabbitohs -4.80
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 Storm 20.10
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 Titans -2.50
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 Panthers 18.60
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 Eels -17.20
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 Roosters -14.10
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 Warriors 9.90
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 Dragons 9.30

 

April 20, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.63 4.80 2.80
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.97 3.22 3.80
Racing-Metro 92 5.47 6.21 -0.70
Lyon Rugby 4.37 5.61 -1.20
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -1.31 -3.22 1.90
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -2.95 -4.48 1.50
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 143 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 17 43 – 33 8.20 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 18 26 – 24 -3.80 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 18 38 – 23 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier Apr 24 Bordeaux-Begles 6.30
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 25 Aviron Bayonnais 0.40
3 Brive vs. La Rochelle Apr 25 La Rochelle -3.60
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 Lyon Rugby 2.90
5 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen Apr 25 RC Toulonnais 23.20
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 Stade Francais Paris 7.10
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 Stade Toulousain 7.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.42 14.49 -0.10
Blues 8.12 7.80 0.30
Hurricanes 6.00 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.92 4.38 0.50
Brumbies 3.41 1.47 1.90
Reds 3.20 1.59 1.60
Highlanders 3.03 2.70 0.30
Rebels -4.75 -3.51 -1.20
Waratahs -8.29 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.10 -13.05 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 16 35 – 29 -0.10 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Apr 16 20 – 26 -2.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 17 26 – 25 -4.70 FALSE
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 17 31 – 30 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 23 Chiefs 4.40
2 Western Force vs. Reds Apr 23 Reds -9.80
3 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 24 Waratahs 2.00
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 Crusaders 11.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.42 7.35 -0.90
Bristol 4.65 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 4.44 -1.08 5.50
Sale Sharks 3.52 4.96 -1.40
Northampton Saints 1.03 -2.48 3.50
Bath -1.59 2.14 -3.70
Wasps -1.62 5.66 -7.30
Gloucester -2.66 -1.02 -1.60
Leicester Tigers -3.47 -6.14 2.70
London Irish -5.99 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -7.92 -10.00 2.10
Worcester Warriors -9.91 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Apr 17 44 – 26 10.60 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Apr 17 25 – 22 11.70 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 18 43 – 13 10.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 18 50 – 26 18.10 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Apr 18 17 – 34 -6.90 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 19 21 – 20 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 24 Bristol 2.70
2 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 24 Harlequins -5.90
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 25 Gloucester 9.80
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 25 Leicester Tigers 0.00
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 25 Sale Sharks -8.90
6 Wasps vs. Bath Apr 26 Wasps 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.60 14.53 1.10
Panthers 12.43 8.88 3.60
Roosters 11.68 10.25 1.40
Rabbitohs 9.98 7.73 2.20
Eels 5.59 1.68 3.90
Raiders 3.15 6.98 -3.80
Sharks 0.90 -0.76 1.70
Warriors -0.72 -1.84 1.10
Dragons -1.23 -4.95 3.70
Knights -4.91 -2.61 -2.30
Wests Tigers -5.05 -3.07 -2.00
Titans -6.28 -7.22 0.90
Sea Eagles -6.57 -4.77 -1.80
Broncos -9.57 -11.16 1.60
Cowboys -12.16 -8.05 -4.10
Bulldogs -14.82 -7.62 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Apr 15 12 – 20 -21.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 16 26 – 22 -4.30 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 16 20 – 4 5.00 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 17 36 – 0 -3.90 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 18 – 14 21.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 17 10 – 35 5.70 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 18 14 – 20 4.30 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 18 30 – 18 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Knights Apr 22 Panthers 20.30
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 Rabbitohs -13.30
3 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 23 Eels 18.20
4 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 Sharks 18.70
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 24 Raiders -12.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Wests Tigers 4.50
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 15.90
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.30

 

View comments (2)
April 13, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.76 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.38 7.80 0.60
Hurricanes 6.00 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.58 4.38 0.20
Reds 3.20 1.59 1.60
Brumbies 3.19 1.47 1.70
Highlanders 2.78 2.70 0.10
Rebels -4.53 -3.51 -1.00
Waratahs -8.33 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.05 -13.05 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Western Force Apr 09 15 – 16 14.10 FALSE
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Apr 10 23 – 26 4.30 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 10 24 – 22 6.00 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 27 – 30 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 16 Blues -0.10
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Apr 16 Brumbies -2.20
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 17 Crusaders -4.70
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 17 Western Force 1.80

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »