Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 13, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.62 14.53 0.10
Panthers 13.60 8.88 4.70
Roosters 12.66 10.25 2.40
Rabbitohs 11.45 7.73 3.70
Raiders 5.74 6.98 -1.20
Eels 3.00 1.68 1.30
Sharks 1.64 -0.76 2.40
Dragons -0.31 -4.95 4.60
Warriors -1.64 -1.84 0.20
Titans -2.96 -7.22 4.30
Knights -5.66 -2.61 -3.10
Wests Tigers -6.53 -3.07 -3.50
Sea Eagles -9.89 -4.77 -5.10
Broncos -10.75 -11.16 0.40
Cowboys -12.86 -8.05 -4.80
Bulldogs -14.12 -7.62 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 08 35 – 6 24.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 12 – 13 10.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 09 30 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Knights Apr 10 42 – 16 1.50 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Apr 10 18 – 52 -24.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 10 26 – 18 15.30 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 11 30 – 34 12.10 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 11 12 – 26 10.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -21.30
2 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 16 Sharks -4.30
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 16 Storm 5.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 17 Titans -3.90
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 Rabbitohs 21.00
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 17 Raiders 5.70
7 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 18 Dragons 4.30
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 18 Cowboys 4.30

 

April 6, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.38 7.80 0.60
Hurricanes 5.98 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.28 4.38 -0.10
Reds 3.44 1.59 1.80
Highlanders 3.07 2.70 0.40
Brumbies 2.95 1.47 1.50
Rebels -4.00 -3.51 -0.50
Waratahs -8.33 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.57 -13.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 02 12 – 33 19.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 02 22 – 24 -6.30 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 03 27 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 19 – 44 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Western Force Apr 09 Rebels 14.10
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Apr 10 Highlanders 4.30
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Reds 6.00
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Crusaders -3.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.73 14.53 -0.80
Roosters 13.32 10.25 3.10
Panthers 12.62 8.88 3.70
Rabbitohs 11.02 7.73 3.30
Raiders 6.72 6.98 -0.30
Eels 5.09 1.68 3.40
Sharks 0.98 -0.76 1.70
Warriors -0.65 -1.84 1.20
Dragons -2.40 -4.95 2.60
Knights -3.57 -2.61 -1.00
Titans -5.05 -7.22 2.20
Wests Tigers -5.12 -3.07 -2.10
Broncos -10.31 -11.16 0.80
Sea Eagles -10.88 -4.77 -6.10
Bulldogs -13.22 -7.62 -5.60
Cowboys -14.26 -8.05 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 01 6 – 46 -16.50 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 02 0 – 38 -17.80 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 02 40 – 6 25.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 03 48 – 10 14.20 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 03 4 – 20 -7.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 13 – 22 4.10 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 04 32 – 12 16.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 05 22 – 36 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 08 Rabbitohs 24.30
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 Warriors 10.20
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 09 Panthers 8.90
4 Titans vs. Knights Apr 10 Titans 1.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Apr 10 Storm -24.00
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 10 Roosters 15.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 11 Wests Tigers 12.10
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 11 Eels 10.50

 

March 30, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.97 10.25 2.70
Storm 12.97 14.53 -1.60
Panthers 10.61 8.88 1.70
Rabbitohs 9.28 7.73 1.50
Raiders 5.93 6.98 -1.00
Eels 4.34 1.68 2.70
Warriors -0.30 -1.84 1.50
Sharks -1.06 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -2.42 -2.61 0.20
Dragons -3.56 -4.95 1.40
Titans -4.26 -7.22 3.00
Wests Tigers -4.38 -3.07 -1.30
Sea Eagles -8.87 -4.77 -4.10
Broncos -9.55 -11.16 1.60
Bulldogs -11.48 -7.62 -3.90
Cowboys -12.23 -8.05 -4.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 25 12 – 10 0.30 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 38 – 12 4.70 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 26 26 – 16 -3.00 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 27 31 – 34 11.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 24 – 0 1.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 27 28 – 4 5.10 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 28 20 – 24 6.90 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 28 8 – 44 1.20 FALSE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 01 Panthers -16.50
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 02 Rabbitohs -17.80
3 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 02 Storm 25.50
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 03 Sharks 14.20
5 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 03 Raiders -7.20
6 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 Knights 4.10
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 04 Roosters 16.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 05 Eels -5.70

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.10 4.80 3.30
Clermont Auvergne 7.03 3.22 3.80
La Rochelle 6.35 2.32 4.00
Racing-Metro 92 5.49 6.21 -0.70
Lyon Rugby 4.95 5.61 -0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 3.43 2.83 0.60
RC Toulonnais 2.47 3.56 -1.10
Montpellier 2.17 2.30 -0.10
Stade Francais Paris -1.03 -3.22 2.20
Castres Olympique -1.28 -0.47 -0.80
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.47 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.13 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -15.49 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 28 23 – 13 -7.30 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 28 11 – 26 3.80 FALSE
3 Brive vs. SU Agen Mar 28 57 – 3 16.90 TRUE
4 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Mar 28 38 – 33 8.10 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 28 54 – 16 6.10 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 28 27 – 34 -1.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 28 16 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 18 Stade Toulousain -3.90
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 18 Clermont Auvergne 14.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 18 La Rochelle 6.90
4 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 18 Montpellier 5.20
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 18 Racing-Metro 92 12.00
6 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 17 Section Paloise 8.20
7 SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 18 Bordeaux-Begles -13.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.93 14.49 1.40
Blues 8.23 7.80 0.40
Hurricanes 6.13 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 4.28 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.20 1.47 1.70
Reds 2.67 1.59 1.10
Highlanders 1.91 2.70 -0.80
Rebels -3.22 -3.51 0.30
Waratahs -8.59 -5.02 -3.60
Western Force -12.57 -13.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 26 19 – 30 2.20 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 26 42 – 14 20.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 27 15 – 12 1.40 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 27 14 – 46 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 02 Crusaders 19.50
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 02 Brumbies -6.30
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 03 Blues 7.60
4 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 Reds -0.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.43 7.35 -1.90
Bristol 4.08 1.28 2.80
Harlequins 4.08 -1.08 5.20
Sale Sharks 4.03 4.96 -0.90
Northampton Saints 0.59 -2.48 3.10
Wasps -0.62 5.66 -6.30
Bath -1.22 2.14 -3.40
Gloucester -3.16 -1.02 -2.10
Leicester Tigers -3.85 -6.14 2.30
London Irish -5.55 -8.05 2.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.35 -10.00 2.70
Worcester Warriors -9.55 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 83 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 28 35 – 33 5.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 27 34 – 18 -6.30 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 29 26 – 12 7.20 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Bath Mar 28 36 – 33 -0.40 FALSE
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Mar 28 19 – 20 0.00 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 28 14 – 62 -1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 19 Bath 7.10
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 18 Exeter Chiefs 10.60
3 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 18 Harlequins 18.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Apr 18 Bristol -6.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Apr 17 Northampton Saints 10.60
6 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Apr 17 Sale Sharks 11.70

 

March 23, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.93 14.49 1.40
Blues 8.33 7.80 0.50
Hurricanes 5.65 7.13 -1.50
Chiefs 4.19 4.38 -0.20
Brumbies 2.91 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.39 2.70 -0.30
Reds 1.80 1.59 0.20
Rebels -3.22 -3.51 0.30
Waratahs -7.73 -5.02 -2.70
Western Force -12.28 -13.05 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 19 33 – 14 9.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Mar 20 29 – 35 8.00 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 20 26 – 19 20.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 21 27 – 43 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 26 Highlanders 2.20
2 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 26 Brumbies 20.70
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 27 Chiefs 1.40
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 27 Reds -4.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.55 7.35 -0.80
Bristol 4.32 1.28 3.00
Sale Sharks 3.94 4.96 -1.00
Harlequins 3.85 -1.08 4.90
Wasps -0.54 5.66 -6.20
Bath -0.95 2.14 -3.10
Northampton Saints -1.50 -2.48 1.00
Leicester Tigers -4.25 -6.14 1.90
Gloucester -4.29 -1.02 -3.30
London Irish -5.82 -8.05 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.94 -10.00 3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.46 -5.71 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 21 47 – 22 9.40 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 47 – 31 15.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 21 59 – 24 10.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Mar 21 18 – 20 -1.90 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 21 21 – 28 -0.50 TRUE
6 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 21 41 – 13 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 28 Bristol 5.00
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 29 Leicester Tigers 7.20
4 London Irish vs. Bath Mar 28 Bath -0.40
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Mar 28 Wasps 0.00
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 28 Northampton Saints -1.50

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for the Final and Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.68 16.52 -0.80
Munster 9.76 9.90 -0.10
Ulster 8.80 4.58 4.20
Edinburgh 3.92 5.49 -1.60
Connacht 2.47 0.70 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 2.11 5.66 -3.60
Cardiff Blues 0.72 0.08 0.60
Scarlets 0.59 1.98 -1.40
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -0.76 -2.82 2.10
Dragons -6.69 -7.85 1.20
Treviso -6.70 -3.50 -3.20
Zebre -14.52 -15.37 0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Treviso Mar 20 31 – 17 23.90 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Mar 20 19 – 24 24.90 FALSE
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Mar 20 49 – 3 28.50 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 26 – 17 -3.30 FALSE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 34 – 15 2.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Mar 23 41 – 36 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Mar 29 Edinburgh -6.90
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso Mar 28 Glasgow Warriors 14.90
3 Leinster vs. Munster Mar 28 Leinster 10.90

 

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