NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 15.60 | 14.53 | 1.10 |
| Panthers | 12.43 | 8.88 | 3.60 |
| Roosters | 11.68 | 10.25 | 1.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 9.98 | 7.73 | 2.20 |
| Eels | 5.59 | 1.68 | 3.90 |
| Raiders | 3.15 | 6.98 | -3.80 |
| Sharks | 0.90 | -0.76 | 1.70 |
| Warriors | -0.72 | -1.84 | 1.10 |
| Dragons | -1.23 | -4.95 | 3.70 |
| Knights | -4.91 | -2.61 | -2.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.05 | -3.07 | -2.00 |
| Titans | -6.28 | -7.22 | 0.90 |
| Sea Eagles | -6.57 | -4.77 | -1.80 |
| Broncos | -9.57 | -11.16 | 1.60 |
| Cowboys | -12.16 | -8.05 | -4.10 |
| Bulldogs | -14.82 | -7.62 | -7.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Apr 15 | 12 – 20 | -21.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Sharks | Apr 16 | 26 – 22 | -4.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Apr 16 | 20 – 4 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Titans | Apr 17 | 36 – 0 | -3.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 17 | 18 – 14 | 21.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Eels | Apr 17 | 10 – 35 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Apr 18 | 14 – 20 | 4.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Apr 18 | 30 – 18 | 4.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Knights | Apr 22 | Panthers | 20.30 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 23 | Rabbitohs | -13.30 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Broncos | Apr 23 | Eels | 18.20 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Apr 24 | Sharks | 18.70 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Apr 24 | Raiders | -12.30 |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 25 | Wests Tigers | 4.50 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Apr 25 | Roosters | 15.90 |
| 8 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | Storm | 19.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I would gratefully thanked that this my first time to see such. We are also playing tipping competition here in PNG. Is this method sometimes come true?
3 years ago
Yes, the method I use “sometimes come true”. You can assess its performance by the success percentages of previous forecasts which are included with all predictions. You can also compare the forecasted points differences with the actual differences observed after games have been played.
3 years ago