July 17, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.63 16.73 -7.10
Rabbitohs 4.86 -3.90 8.80
Raiders 3.96 3.50 0.50
Sharks 3.86 2.20 1.70
Roosters 3.70 0.13 3.60
Panthers 2.86 2.64 0.20
Dragons 1.94 -0.45 2.40
Broncos 0.92 4.78 -3.90
Warriors -1.07 -6.97 5.90
Cowboys -1.96 2.97 -4.90
Sea Eagles -2.81 -1.07 -1.70
Bulldogs -3.93 -3.43 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.00 -3.63 -0.40
Eels -5.60 1.51 -7.10
Titans -6.01 -8.91 2.90
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 12 – 24 4.30 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 18 – 16 -0.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 6 – 24 -3.80 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 13 – 14 -10.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 38 – 12 6.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 6 – 26 10.80 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 16 – 20 11.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 12 – 20 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 Eels 1.30
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 Sharks 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 Broncos 1.10
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 Knights 0.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Rabbitohs -5.90
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 Dragons -0.90
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -6.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 Roosters -3.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »