Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifiers
Team Ratings for the Qualifiers
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.04 | 15.23 | 1.80 |
| Hurricanes | 11.03 | 16.18 | -5.10 |
| Chiefs | 8.84 | 9.29 | -0.40 |
| Lions | 8.50 | 13.81 | -5.30 |
| Highlanders | 4.94 | 10.29 | -5.40 |
| Waratahs | 1.98 | -3.92 | 5.90 |
| Sharks | 1.19 | 1.02 | 0.20 |
| Jaguares | 0.06 | -4.64 | 4.70 |
| Brumbies | -0.06 | 1.75 | -1.80 |
| Stormers | -0.33 | 1.48 | -1.80 |
| Blues | -3.20 | -0.24 | -3.00 |
| Bulls | -3.81 | -4.79 | 1.00 |
| Rebels | -7.97 | -14.96 | 7.00 |
| Reds | -8.63 | -9.47 | 0.80 |
| Sunwolves | -16.98 | -18.42 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Jul 13 | 28 – 24 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Sunwolves | Jul 13 | 48 – 27 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Rebels | Jul 14 | 43 – 37 | 18.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Jul 14 | 54 – 17 | 21.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jul 14 | 31 – 40 | 7.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Bulls | Jul 14 | 38 – 12 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Jaguares | Jul 14 | 20 – 10 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Qualifiers
Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Jul 20 | Hurricanes | 5.70 |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Sharks | Jul 21 | Crusaders | 19.80 |
| 3 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Jul 21 | Waratahs | 1.00 |
| 4 | Lions vs. Jaguares | Jul 21 | Lions | 12.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Refereeing a major problem all season and a bunch of home town refs and officials are appointed for finals! Unconscious bias and home crowd pressure shouldn’t decide these crucial matches!
6 years ago