NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.39 | 16.73 | -5.30 |
| Roosters | 6.55 | 0.13 | 6.40 |
| Sharks | 3.95 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Broncos | 3.07 | 4.78 | -1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.94 | -3.90 | 6.80 |
| Raiders | 2.11 | 3.50 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | 2.00 | -0.45 | 2.40 |
| Panthers | 0.80 | 2.64 | -1.80 |
| Warriors | -2.79 | -6.97 | 4.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.23 | -3.63 | 0.40 |
| Cowboys | -3.32 | 2.97 | -6.30 |
| Bulldogs | -3.50 | -3.43 | -0.10 |
| Titans | -4.66 | -8.91 | 4.30 |
| Eels | -4.88 | 1.51 | -6.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.91 | -1.07 | -3.80 |
| Knights | -7.82 | -8.43 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Jul 26 | 12 – 10 | 2.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Jul 27 | 20 – 18 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 27 | 16 – 4 | 1.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Jul 28 | 24 – 28 | -2.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | Jul 28 | 26 – 20 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Raiders | Jul 28 | 44 – 10 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Titans vs. Warriors | Jul 29 | 36 – 12 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Jul 29 | 36 – 18 | 5.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Aug 02 | Broncos | -3.60 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 03 | Wests Tigers | -1.60 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Aug 03 | Storm | -5.40 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Aug 04 | Dragons | 9.30 |
| 5 | Eels vs. Titans | Aug 04 | Eels | 2.80 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Aug 04 | Roosters | 12.90 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 05 | Sharks | 11.90 |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Aug 05 | Panthers | 1.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
please inform me about nrl 2018 experts tipping
6 years ago
Not sure what you are asking. The predictions on this site are statistical predictions based on results of past games and home ground advantage. There is no aspect of “expert judgement” in the week by week predictions, only statistical expertise in selecting parameters for the models involved.
6 years ago