NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.30 | 16.73 | -6.40 |
| Roosters | 6.07 | 0.13 | 5.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.02 | -3.90 | 7.90 |
| Sharks | 3.05 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | 1.84 | 4.78 | -2.90 |
| Raiders | 1.60 | 3.50 | -1.90 |
| Panthers | 1.31 | 2.64 | -1.30 |
| Dragons | 0.93 | -0.45 | 1.40 |
| Warriors | -1.72 | -6.97 | 5.30 |
| Bulldogs | -2.27 | -3.43 | 1.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.71 | -3.63 | 0.90 |
| Cowboys | -2.84 | 2.97 | -5.80 |
| Eels | -3.96 | 1.51 | -5.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.01 | -1.07 | -2.90 |
| Titans | -5.59 | -8.91 | 3.30 |
| Knights | -8.34 | -8.43 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Aug 02 | 36 – 22 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 03 | 16 – 25 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Aug 03 | 30 – 20 | -5.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Aug 04 | 12 – 18 | 9.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Eels vs. Titans | Aug 04 | 28 – 12 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Aug 04 | 26 – 20 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 05 | 32 – 33 | 11.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Aug 05 | 40 – 31 | 1.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 08 | Broncos | -1.70 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Knights | Aug 10 | Warriors | 11.10 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Aug 10 | Rabbitohs | 0.90 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Panthers | Aug 11 | Panthers | -3.90 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Aug 11 | Sea Eagles | 1.30 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Dragons | Aug 11 | Dragons | -1.90 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 12 | Raiders | 7.30 |
| 8 | Storm vs. Sharks | Aug 12 | Storm | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Interested in your tips & predictions. please email to me.
Thank you,
Christina
6 years ago
Sorry, I don’t do that. I try to post on a Tuesday but that might be a problem for the next month when I am overseas. Others have alerts to pick up posts—I know that because a minute after I post, I can have 15 views.
6 years ago