Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 13.87 | 12.18 | 1.70 |
| Canterbury | 13.08 | 15.32 | -2.20 |
| North Harbour | 6.83 | 6.42 | 0.40 |
| Tasman | 6.37 | 2.62 | 3.80 |
| Auckland | 4.53 | -0.50 | 5.00 |
| Waikato | 4.45 | -3.24 | 7.70 |
| Otago | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Taranaki | -2.47 | 6.58 | -9.00 |
| Northland | -2.65 | -3.45 | 0.80 |
| Counties Manukau | -3.12 | 1.84 | -5.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | -3.50 | 0.27 | -3.80 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -8.37 | -13.00 | 4.60 |
| Manawatu | -9.37 | -4.36 | -5.00 |
| Southland | -22.57 | -23.17 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Sep 26 | 55 – 41 | -4.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Sep 27 | 15 – 17 | 12.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Otago | Sep 28 | 26 – 31 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Southland | Sep 29 | 42 – 11 | 31.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Taranaki vs. North Harbour | Sep 29 | 26 – 55 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wellington vs. Tasman | Sep 29 | 22 – 28 | 15.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 30 | 49 – 24 | 27.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Counties Manukau vs. Northland | Sep 30 | 20 – 24 | 3.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 03 | Otago | 8.30 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Auckland | Oct 04 | Wellington | 13.30 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu | Oct 05 | Hawke’s Bay | 5.00 |
| 4 | Northland vs. Waikato | Oct 06 | Waikato | -3.10 |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 06 | North Harbour | 14.00 |
| 6 | Canterbury vs. Taranaki | Oct 06 | Canterbury | 19.50 |
| 7 | Southland vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 07 | Bay of Plenty | -15.10 |
| 8 | Otago vs. Tasman | Oct 07 | Tasman | -1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Nah, im on 77% your method is no better than Darts to a Dart Board. Hawks Bay and Counties were always going to win Still it makes interesting reading.
6 years ago