Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.63 | 15.74 | -1.10 |
| Munster | 9.78 | 9.13 | 0.70 |
| Ulster | 8.27 | 8.77 | -0.50 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 3.55 | 2.64 | 0.90 |
| Bulls | 3.42 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Connacht | 2.47 | 2.50 | -0.00 |
| Edinburgh | 1.73 | 3.48 | -1.80 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.72 | 0.73 | -0.00 |
| Stormers | 0.66 | 0.80 | -0.10 |
| Ospreys | 0.18 | -0.65 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | -0.08 | 1.16 | -1.20 |
| Scarlets | -0.46 | 0.41 | -0.90 |
| Lions | -3.35 | -3.00 | -0.30 |
| Treviso | -5.48 | -6.46 | 1.00 |
| Dragons | -6.62 | -6.39 | -0.20 |
| Zebre | -13.38 | -14.52 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 29 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Stormers | May 22 | 22 – 25 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lions vs. Bulls | May 22 | 34 – 33 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Munster vs. Cardiff Blues | May 29 | 31 – 27 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Treviso vs. Connacht | May 30 | 20 – 12 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors | May 30 | 16 – 27 | -2.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jun 05 | Bulls | 7.80 |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Ospreys | Jun 05 | Connacht | 8.80 |
| 3 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster | Jun 05 | Leinster | -4.60 |
| 4 | Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre | Jun 06 | Cardiff Blues | 20.60 |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Ulster | Jun 06 | Ulster | -0.00 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jun 06 | Lions | 1.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I have updated this after seeing that the Bulls v Stormers game was played at the original date. I had that game and the Lions v Sharks game postponed to an unspecified date.
3 years ago