Posts from March 2019 (15)

March 12, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.74 11.19 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 9.88 11.13 -1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.00 1.23 2.80
Northampton Saints 3.51 3.42 0.10
Bath Rugby 2.99 3.11 -0.10
Wasps 2.90 8.30 -5.40
Harlequins 2.36 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 1.89 -0.81 2.70
Leicester Tigers 1.51 6.26 -4.70
Bristol -2.53 -5.60 3.10
Worcester Warriors -2.54 -5.18 2.60
Newcastle Falcons -3.13 -3.51 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 18 – 9 -3.40 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 7 – 29 6.10 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 24 – 26 12.90 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 32 – 5 4.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 19 – 20 12.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 30 – 33 -7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 23 Bristol 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby Mar 23 Exeter Chiefs 12.40
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps Mar 23 Gloucester Rugby 6.60
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 3.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 23 Newcastle Falcons 0.50
6 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 13.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.72 8.72 0.00
Storm 6.03 6.03 -0.00
Sharks 3.90 3.90 -0.00
Rabbitohs 3.89 3.89 0.00
Broncos 2.63 2.63 0.00
Raiders 1.81 1.81 0.00
Panthers 0.93 0.93 0.00
Cowboys 0.15 0.15 -0.00
Dragons 0.06 0.06 0.00
Warriors -0.27 -0.27 0.00
Bulldogs -0.61 -0.61 0.00
Titans -3.36 -3.36 0.00
Wests Tigers -5.57 -5.57 -0.00
Sea Eagles -5.61 -5.61 -0.00
Eels -6.17 -6.17 0.00
Knights -8.51 -8.51 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 14 Storm 6.40
2 Knights vs. Sharks Mar 15 Sharks -9.40
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Roosters 7.80
4 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 Warriors 4.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 16 Wests Tigers 3.00
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 16 Cowboys 3.10
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 17 Panthers 10.10
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 17 Raiders -2.20

 

March 5, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.41 17.67 -1.30
Hurricanes 10.09 9.43 0.70
Lions 6.07 8.28 -2.20
Highlanders 3.29 4.01 -0.70
Chiefs 2.92 8.56 -5.60
Sharks 1.66 0.45 1.20
Waratahs 1.27 2.00 -0.70
Brumbies 0.34 0.00 0.30
Jaguares -0.13 -0.26 0.10
Bulls -0.28 -3.79 3.50
Stormers -1.25 -0.39 -0.90
Blues -2.94 -3.42 0.50
Rebels -5.52 -7.26 1.70
Reds -6.85 -8.19 1.30
Sunwolves -14.10 -16.08 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 01 43 – 13 11.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 01 24 – 19 -6.20 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Sunwolves Mar 02 15 – 30 25.90 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 02 12 – 22 -20.50 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 02 12 – 30 13.60 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 11 – 16 8.00 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Blues Mar 02 23 – 19 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Hurricanes 10.30
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 08 Brumbies -2.40
3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Crusaders 17.00
4 Blues vs. Sunwolves Mar 09 Blues 15.20
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 09 Waratahs 11.60
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Mar 09 Lions 10.20
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 09 Bulls 1.60

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.33 11.19 0.10
Exeter Chiefs 10.31 11.13 -0.80
Northampton Saints 4.19 3.42 0.80
Wasps 3.55 8.30 -4.70
Harlequins 3.46 2.05 1.40
Gloucester Rugby 2.90 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.46 6.26 -3.80
Bath Rugby 2.39 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.95 -0.81 1.80
Worcester Warriors -2.97 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.21 -5.60 2.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.77 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Harlequins Mar 02 29 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 02 28 – 24 -1.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Mar 02 19 – 14 4.30 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 02 17 – 6 3.90 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 02 14 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 02 36 – 17 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 Saracens -3.40
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 Harlequins 6.10
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 Northampton Saints 12.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 Sale Sharks 4.00
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 Wasps 12.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 Exeter Chiefs -7.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.09 9.80 2.30
Munster 10.08 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 8.68 8.55 0.10
Scarlets 3.80 6.39 -2.60
Connacht 3.10 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.46 2.07 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.52 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh -0.37 -0.64 0.30
Ospreys -0.50 -0.86 0.40
Treviso -0.57 -5.19 4.60
Cheetahs -1.80 -0.83 -1.00
Dragons -10.19 -8.59 -1.60
Southern Kings -10.70 -7.91 -2.80
Zebre -15.06 -10.57 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 19 – 7 19.60 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 03 46 – 5 5.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Mar 03 18 – 10 3.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Mar 03 10 – 6 -2.90 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 03 10 – 42 -18.10 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Southern Kings Mar 03 26 – 19 16.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 04 15 – 28 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 1.20
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Mar 23 Connacht 8.20
3 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -8.00
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 Glasgow Warriors 15.00
5 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 23 Munster 29.60
6 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 23 Ospreys 14.20
7 Ulster vs. Southern Kings Mar 23 Ulster 16.70

 

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