Updated NRL Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Round 9 games all being played in Brisbane caused problems for me again. I had changed the order of the teams for the Sea Eagles versus Broncos game to give them home ground advantage which then impacted my routines for webscraping results and adding them to my database. I thought I had corrected the resulting errors but missed one. Since that affected the updated ratings and the predictions for Round 10, I have updated the whole post.
Thanks to Chad James for advising me of the error.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10.91 | 8.72 | 2.20 |
| Storm | 9.71 | 6.03 | 3.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.04 | 3.89 | 3.20 |
| Raiders | 3.89 | 1.81 | 2.10 |
| Sharks | 1.41 | 3.90 | -2.50 |
| Broncos | 0.82 | 2.63 | -1.80 |
| Dragons | -0.72 | 0.06 | -0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.42 | -5.61 | 3.20 |
| Warriors | -2.69 | -0.27 | -2.40 |
| Cowboys | -2.80 | 0.15 | -3.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.54 | -5.57 | 2.00 |
| Eels | -3.85 | -6.17 | 2.30 |
| Knights | -4.31 | -8.51 | 4.20 |
| Bulldogs | -4.91 | -0.61 | -4.30 |
| Panthers | -5.20 | 0.93 | -6.10 |
| Titans | -5.33 | -3.36 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Sharks | May 09 | 18 – 26 | -6.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | May 10 | 30 – 4 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | May 10 | 26 – 10 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | May 11 | 10 – 22 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Dragons | May 11 | 26 – 18 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Eels | May 11 | 64 – 10 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Raiders | May 12 | 30 – 24 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | May 12 | 32 – 16 | 8.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | May 16 | Storm | 16.30 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | May 17 | Panthers | 2.00 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 17 | Roosters | -7.10 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | May 18 | Titans | 2.60 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Eels | May 18 | Cowboys | 4.00 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Rabbitohs | May 18 | Rabbitohs | -0.10 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Knights | May 19 | Dragons | 6.60 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | May 19 | Sharks | 6.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
morning David, thank you for your input and your predictions.
I enjoy all your work and predictions. Last nights game between the Storm and the West Tigers was a very close game prediction was 16.30.
Am i right that the higher the prediction the more likely that team can win. Is there any advise you can give me to understand more how the Does and the Dont`s when following your predictions,
Hope you have a good weekend.
Thanks again
Christo
5 years ago
Yes. The higher the value, the more likely that team wins. The number can be converted to a probability of winning although I don’t do that.
As to using the predictions, just note that they are based on past form and home ground advantage only. If there are other factors you think are important (loss of key players, weather, dud referee, …) then you might want to modify these predictions to reflect your subjective opinion. These predictions are almost entirely based on data. The only judgement or subjective aspects are in choosing the parameters and some calls concerning home ground. Home ground decisions can be relevant in Sydney in particular, when teams play at one of the major stadiums which is the designated home ground for one of them but the other team plays there fairly often.
5 years ago
Thank you for your input. I tried to do some of my own calculations this weekend and it was not successful. Almost every year midway in the competition it becomes more and more difficult for me to get over 50% predictions.
What I have monitored the closer we get to the world cup, the Crusaders wheels fall off.
This year they have become very unpredictable sooner.
5 years ago