July 23, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.25 6.03 6.20
Roosters 7.56 8.72 -1.20
Raiders 5.75 1.81 3.90
Rabbitohs 4.15 3.89 0.30
Sea Eagles -0.23 -5.61 5.40
Panthers -0.52 0.93 -1.40
Broncos -0.59 2.63 -3.20
Sharks -0.86 3.90 -4.80
Eels -1.18 -6.17 5.00
Warriors -1.65 -0.27 -1.40
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Knights -2.66 -8.51 5.80
Dragons -4.03 0.06 -4.10
Wests Tigers -4.55 -5.57 1.00
Bulldogs -6.55 -0.61 -5.90
Titans -6.58 -3.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 28 – 6 6.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 19 19 – 18 4.10 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jul 19 40 – 18 4.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 20 48 – 10 9.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 20 – 12 14.20 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jul 20 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Storm Jul 21 18 – 38 -15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 21 36 – 24 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 25 Sharks 4.40
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 Knights 4.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 26 Rabbitohs 11.20
4 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 27 Eels 5.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 27 Broncos -3.00
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Storm 15.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 28 Roosters -11.10
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 28 Raiders -3.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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