NRL Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12.08 | 8.72 | 3.40 |
| Storm | 11.64 | 6.03 | 5.60 |
| Raiders | 8.01 | 1.81 | 6.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.32 | -5.61 | 8.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.25 | 3.89 | -2.60 |
| Sharks | 0.96 | 3.90 | -2.90 |
| Eels | -0.54 | -6.17 | 5.60 |
| Broncos | -0.61 | 2.63 | -3.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.68 | -5.57 | 4.90 |
| Panthers | -3.16 | 0.93 | -4.10 |
| Bulldogs | -3.20 | -0.61 | -2.60 |
| Dragons | -4.58 | 0.06 | -4.60 |
| Knights | -4.80 | -8.51 | 3.70 |
| Cowboys | -5.31 | 0.15 | -5.50 |
| Warriors | -5.47 | -0.27 | -5.20 |
| Titans | -10.91 | -3.36 | -7.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 176 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Aug 22 | 6 – 12 | 7.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Aug 23 | 24 – 10 | -1.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 23 | 20 – 22 | 1.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Aug 24 | 42 – 16 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Aug 24 | 46 – 4 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Aug 24 | 12 – 34 | -12.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Titans | Aug 25 | 24 – 8 | 27.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 25 | 14 – 18 | 9.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Aug 29 | Cowboys | 0.90 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 30 | Rabbitohs | -2.20 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 30 | Broncos | 2.90 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Titans | Aug 31 | Knights | 9.10 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Aug 31 | Storm | -5.30 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Aug 31 | Roosters | 18.20 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Sep 01 | Raiders | -4.00 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 01 | Wests Tigers | -0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Very interesting information.
5 years ago
Hope you had a multi on this week
5 years ago
I don’t bet.
This was a good week. I only missed two results (one of which was a draw which the Sydney Morning Herald used to count as a half). However a few weeks ago I was only at 50% for the Currie Cup and Mitre 10 Cup.
5 years ago
at the start its hard to calibrate… watching the games can help sure its not statistical BUT Steve Hanson isn’t all stats either
5 years ago