Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 16.61 | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| Auckland | 11.67 | 11.57 | 0.10 |
| Canterbury | 10.77 | 12.92 | -2.10 |
| Wellington | 7.12 | 10.92 | -3.80 |
| Waikato | 5.97 | 8.24 | -2.30 |
| North Harbour | 3.72 | 5.30 | -1.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.60 | -4.82 | 7.40 |
| Counties Manukau | -0.87 | -1.99 | 1.10 |
| Taranaki | -2.04 | -5.22 | 3.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -3.34 | -5.69 | 2.30 |
| Otago | -5.63 | -1.49 | -4.10 |
| Northland | -10.45 | -6.23 | -4.20 |
| Manawatu | -15.65 | -11.67 | -4.00 |
| Southland | -21.72 | -22.08 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago | Aug 22 | 29 – 21 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Canterbury | Aug 23 | 23 – 22 | 0.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 24 | 19 – 13 | 14.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Manawatu | Aug 24 | 64 – 3 | 30.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Waikato | Aug 24 | 26 – 31 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Northland | Aug 25 | 52 – 19 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Southland vs. North Harbour | Aug 25 | 12 – 33 | -21.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 29 | Wellington | 12.00 |
| 2 | Otago vs. Manawatu | Aug 30 | Otago | 14.00 |
| 3 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Aug 31 | Canterbury | 36.50 |
| 4 | Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 31 | Hawke’s Bay | -3.10 |
| 5 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Aug 31 | Auckland | -1.70 |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 01 | North Harbour | 5.10 |
| 7 | Taranaki vs. Tasman | Sep 01 | Tasman | -14.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Watching Otago vs Manawatu, I can’t beleive how much sheparding and off ball interference Otago have been doing.
5 years ago