Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 16.19 | 9.00 | 7.20 |
| Canterbury | 14.68 | 12.92 | 1.80 |
| Auckland | 11.51 | 11.57 | -0.10 |
| Wellington | 6.67 | 10.92 | -4.20 |
| Waikato | 6.12 | 8.24 | -2.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.78 | -4.82 | 8.60 |
| North Harbour | 2.54 | 5.30 | -2.80 |
| Counties Manukau | -0.42 | -1.99 | 1.60 |
| Taranaki | -1.62 | -5.22 | 3.60 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -2.27 | -5.69 | 3.40 |
| Otago | -5.36 | -1.49 | -3.90 |
| Northland | -11.52 | -6.23 | -5.30 |
| Manawatu | -15.92 | -11.67 | -4.30 |
| Southland | -25.64 | -22.08 | -3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 29 | 29 – 22 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Otago vs. Manawatu | Aug 30 | 37 – 20 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Aug 31 | 80 – 0 | 36.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 31 | 28 – 43 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Aug 31 | 20 – 20 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 01 | 19 – 27 | 5.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Taranaki vs. Tasman | Sep 01 | 18 – 28 | -14.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Northland | Sep 05 | Northland | -0.40 |
| 2 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland | Sep 06 | Hawke’s Bay | 27.40 |
| 3 | Counties Manukau vs. Tasman | Sep 06 | Tasman | -12.60 |
| 4 | North Harbour vs. Waikato | Sep 07 | North Harbour | 0.40 |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington | Sep 07 | Bay of Plenty | 1.10 |
| 6 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Sep 08 | Auckland | 0.80 |
| 7 | Otago vs. Taranaki | Sep 08 | Otago | 0.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Its a long season to be fair but 68% is nt any better than most armchair punters. Although I hope you re right and Otago sneek home.
5 years ago
Thanks for the insight, certainly know your stuff.
5 years ago