December 27, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

My apologies for the late publication of these predictions. I was too distracted by Christmas.

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.59 12.20 2.40
Munster 9.14 10.73 -1.60
Glasgow Warriors 6.84 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 3.47 1.89 1.60
Edinburgh 3.20 1.24 2.00
Connacht 2.26 2.68 -0.40
Scarlets 1.95 3.91 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 1.35 0.54 0.80
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Ospreys -1.82 2.80 -4.60
Treviso -2.73 -1.33 -1.40
Dragons -9.63 -9.31 -0.30
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -16.34 -16.93 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 21 54 – 42 17.00 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 22 8 – 13 -9.40 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Munster Dec 22 14 – 19 -1.20 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Dec 22 22 – 20 -7.40 FALSE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 22 20 – 16 9.70 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 22 16 – 19 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Blues 16.00
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 8.80
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 28 Ulster 6.20
4 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 28 Treviso 18.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 29 Edinburgh 1.40
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 29 Leinster -0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »