December 31, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.72 9.34 0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.74 7.99 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.30 0.25 2.00
Gloucester 1.84 0.58 1.30
Sale Sharks 1.73 0.17 1.60
Bath 0.99 1.10 -0.10
Harlequins -1.32 -0.81 -0.50
Wasps -2.12 0.31 -2.40
Bristol -2.40 -2.77 0.40
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -2.69 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -3.89 -1.76 -2.10
London Irish -5.67 -5.51 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Dec 28 21 – 26 5.40 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 29 33 – 26 4.60 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 16 – 14 4.10 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Dec 29 20 – 6 6.60 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 30 – 30 8.00 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 30 14 – 7 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Sale Sharks 7.60
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 Gloucester 5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 3.00
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 Saracens 16.90
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 Exeter Chiefs -8.90
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 Wasps 0.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »