Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 7.50 | 6.21 | 1.30 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.47 | 4.80 | 1.70 |
| La Rochelle | 5.74 | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.29 | 5.61 | -1.30 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 3.74 | 3.22 | 0.50 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.52 | 3.56 | -0.00 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 2.63 | 2.83 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 1.57 | 2.30 | -0.70 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.56 | -3.22 | 3.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.96 | -0.47 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -3.40 | -4.48 | 1.10 |
| Brive | -3.90 | -3.26 | -0.60 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.85 | -4.13 | -0.70 |
| SU Agen | -11.33 | -4.72 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 83 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 02 | 31 – 18 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 02 | 22 – 24 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 02 | 14 – 15 | 12.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | 9 – 16 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive | Jan 02 | 51 – 21 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | SU Agen vs. La Rochelle | Jan 02 | 13 – 43 | -10.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier | Jan 07 | Lyon Rugby | 9.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »