NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 20.29 | 14.53 | 5.80 |
| Panthers | 15.89 | 8.88 | 7.00 |
| Roosters | 11.88 | 10.25 | 1.60 |
| Eels | 9.76 | 1.68 | 8.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.51 | 7.73 | -1.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.89 | -4.77 | 5.70 |
| Raiders | -1.53 | 6.98 | -8.50 |
| Warriors | -2.37 | -1.84 | -0.50 |
| Dragons | -2.79 | -4.95 | 2.20 |
| Sharks | -4.31 | -0.76 | -3.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.95 | -3.07 | -2.90 |
| Knights | -6.60 | -2.61 | -4.00 |
| Titans | -7.54 | -7.22 | -0.30 |
| Cowboys | -9.75 | -8.05 | -1.70 |
| Bulldogs | -12.82 | -7.62 | -5.20 |
| Broncos | -13.55 | -11.16 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | May 14 | 36 – 18 | -3.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | May 14 | 6 – 50 | -4.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Raiders | May 15 | 18 – 20 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | May 15 | 22 – 32 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | May 15 | 30 – 16 | 23.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Eels | May 16 | 18 – 34 | -11.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Dragons | May 16 | 44 – 18 | 26.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Panthers | May 16 | 12 – 48 | -17.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Knights | May 20 | Knights | -0.20 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | May 21 | Warriors | 3.60 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Dragons | May 21 | Sharks | 1.50 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | May 22 | Titans | 8.30 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Broncos | May 22 | Roosters | 28.40 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | May 22 | Storm | -18.80 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | May 23 | Panthers | -6.40 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | May 23 | Eels | 11.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Thank you for consistently sharing these predictions. But results from week 10, The Raiders did beat the Bulldogs and so I think you have the scores mixed up. Therefore, it would be TRUE. I’m not sure if it’s an entry problem or one where it’s affected the Raiders and Bulldogs ratings. Therefore, effecting this week and future predictions.
3 years ago
Apologies, disregard my previous comment. It looks like you already adjusted this. Thank you.
3 years ago
Yes, I realised shortly after posting that there my updating of the results would cause an error because I had swapped the order of the two teams in the Broncos game to ensure the Broncos had the home ground advantage, even though it was apparently not a home game for them. (They were listed second in the fixtures).
This has caused problems for me before and I will be making some programming changes so it doesn’t bite me in the future.
3 years ago
I should say as well, if you do see any errors in the results, please let me know.
3 years ago