Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 10.69 | 10.71 | -0.00 |
| Auckland | 8.62 | 7.95 | 0.70 |
| Wellington | 5.69 | 5.62 | 0.10 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.48 | 4.07 | 0.40 |
| Waikato | 4.35 | 2.52 | 1.80 |
| Canterbury | 4.30 | 6.44 | -2.10 |
| North Harbour | 4.04 | 5.75 | -1.70 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.79 | 5.20 | -2.40 |
| Taranaki | 1.92 | -4.52 | 6.40 |
| Otago | -5.83 | -3.47 | -2.40 |
| Northland | -8.52 | -4.75 | -3.80 |
| Manawatu | -10.22 | -14.72 | 4.50 |
| Southland | -11.02 | -10.39 | -0.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -11.10 | -10.22 | -0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Waikato | Oct 02 | 38 – 28 | -12.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Otago | Oct 02 | 27 – 14 | -3.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington | Oct 02 | 33 – 32 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Southland | Oct 03 | 51 – 14 | 23.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Canterbury | Oct 08 | Wellington | 4.90 |
| 2 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman | Oct 09 | Tasman | -2.70 |
| 3 | Otago vs. Taranaki | Oct 09 | Taranaki | -4.30 |
| 4 | Southland vs. Manawatu | Oct 10 | Southland | 2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Good prediction so far
3 years ago
How could your data point to Wellington winning over Canterbury?!
3 years ago
Canterbury started the competition ranked above Wellington, and have dropped a reasonable amount, so now rank below Wellington who are largely unchanged. Wellington is at home and would have been predicted to win even at the start of the season. I don’t exercise any judgement in my predictions, just follow the data.
The NPC is a bit problematic this year due to the absence of three teams for much of the time. Also Manawatu has likely benefitted from Aaron Smith (but from a very low ranking), and Taranaki has had a very big lift in ranking. Many teams are missing players who are with the All Blacks and that possibly has had an influence as well. Normally I would hope to get over 70% of predictions correct.
3 years ago