NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 16.64 | 14.26 | 2.40 |
| Storm | 12.93 | 19.20 | -6.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.58 | 15.81 | -9.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.71 | 10.99 | -5.30 |
| Cowboys | 2.99 | -12.27 | 15.30 |
| Roosters | 2.98 | 2.23 | 0.70 |
| Sharks | 2.81 | -1.10 | 3.90 |
| Eels | 1.24 | 2.54 | -1.30 |
| Broncos | 0.08 | -8.90 | 9.00 |
| Raiders | -2.02 | -1.10 | -0.90 |
| Dragons | -5.90 | -7.99 | 2.10 |
| Titans | -7.60 | 1.05 | -8.60 |
| Bulldogs | -7.92 | -10.25 | 2.30 |
| Knights | -8.32 | -6.54 | -1.80 |
| Warriors | -9.90 | -8.99 | -0.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -12.29 | -10.94 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Storm | Jul 07 | 28 – 6 | -10.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 08 | 28 – 40 | -11.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Jul 09 | 20 – 28 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Jul 10 | 32 – 18 | 8.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Jul 15 | Cowboys | 3.20 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Warriors | Jul 15 | Eels | 16.60 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Jul 16 | Roosters | 11.90 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Jul 16 | Sea Eagles | 17.00 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 16 | Broncos | -4.70 |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jul 17 | Panthers | -25.90 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Raiders | Jul 17 | Storm | 18.00 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 17 | Rabbitohs | -11.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Numbers under the prediction column are the scores difference or what does these meant for? I’m curious about these numbers.
Help me with it please Sir.
2 years ago
Expected score differences
2 years ago
It is possible to interpret the magnitude of the difference as indicating how much confidence the algorithm has in the winning side. I don’t think that it is suitable for anything stronger
ie large absolute differences implies more likely that the prediction of winning team is correct
the actual difference in scores for the game is unlikely to be close to the predicted value
2 years ago