NRL Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.10 | 19.20 | -5.10 |
| Panthers | 11.89 | 14.26 | -2.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 8.32 | 15.81 | -7.50 |
| Roosters | 7.39 | 2.23 | 5.20 |
| Sharks | 5.64 | -1.10 | 6.70 |
| Cowboys | 4.70 | -12.27 | 17.00 |
| Eels | 2.62 | 2.54 | 0.10 |
| Raiders | -1.62 | -1.10 | -0.50 |
| Dragons | -2.77 | -7.99 | 5.20 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.07 | 10.99 | -14.10 |
| Broncos | -3.14 | -8.90 | 5.80 |
| Titans | -6.92 | 1.05 | -8.00 |
| Knights | -8.42 | -6.54 | -1.90 |
| Bulldogs | -8.47 | -10.25 | 1.80 |
| Warriors | -10.47 | -8.99 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.77 | -10.94 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 176 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | Aug 18 | 22 – 26 | 0.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Aug 19 | 48 – 4 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Aug 19 | 12 – 60 | -10.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Aug 20 | 42 – 6 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | Aug 20 | 6 – 40 | -2.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 20 | 72 – 6 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 21 | 46 – 26 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Raiders | Aug 21 | 22 – 28 | -3.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 25 | Eels | -2.80 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Aug 26 | Panthers | 27.90 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Aug 26 | Storm | 9.70 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 27 | Raiders | 4.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Aug 27 | Sharks | 17.10 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Aug 27 | Rabbitohs | 6.60 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Aug 28 | Dragons | -6.00 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Knights | Aug 28 | Titans | 4.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
There are 4 NRL finals games this weekend, why did you only do predictions for 2 of them?
2 years ago
That would be because I made a mistake. For the finals I have to enter the game details by hand rather than by web scraping.
The predictions have been updated now to cover all four games.
Just a note for the future, for any followers of the predictions, I very much welcome you alerting me if I have made a mistake regarding match details, including missing matches.
2 years ago