August 23, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.25 5.87 -0.60
Auckland 4.79 4.50 0.30
Canterbury 4.49 2.00 2.50
Tasman 4.41 5.94 -1.50
North Harbour 3.72 2.31 1.40
Waikato 2.70 2.00 0.70
Bay of Plenty 2.64 0.10 2.50
Taranaki 1.73 3.63 -1.90
Wellington 0.97 3.58 -2.60
Otago -0.60 -1.63 1.00
Northland -5.04 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -5.83 -6.32 0.50
Southland -6.24 -7.01 0.80
Manawatu -10.67 -5.97 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 20 – 34 -5.00 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 16 – 10 -1.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 6 – 15 10.40 FALSE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 35 – 27 0.90 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 17 – 21 5.80 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 32 – 37 -2.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 17 – 43 -12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 Tasman 2.40
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 Waikato 15.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay 4.00
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 Auckland 7.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 Bay of Plenty 11.00
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 Wellington 1.70
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 Northland 3.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »