April 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.16 12.99 1.20
Rabbitohs 7.95 9.35 -1.40
Storm 7.83 11.21 -3.40
Roosters 6.08 7.64 -1.60
Eels 4.17 6.78 -2.60
Cowboys 3.40 6.23 -2.80
Raiders 1.81 1.98 -0.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -0.55 -2.73 2.20
Broncos -1.17 -5.92 4.80
Sea Eagles -3.63 -5.26 1.60
Titans -6.63 -6.32 -0.30
Bulldogs -6.80 -8.29 1.50
Warriors -7.34 -11.12 3.80
Dolphins -7.47 -10.00 2.50
Knights -11.76 -9.53 -2.20
Wests Tigers -13.38 -13.52 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 30 28 – 20 4.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 31 12 – 53 -5.50 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Mar 31 10 – 18 4.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 01 32 – 32 12.80 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Apr 01 38 – 12 7.70 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 46 – 12 12.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 02 30 – 32 17.00 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 02 15 – 14 -8.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 Storm 4.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 Rabbitohs -11.80
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 Cowboys 13.90
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 Panthers 20.80
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 Broncos 0.00
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 Dragons -3.10
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 Knights 1.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 Eels -14.50
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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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