Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals
Team Ratings for the Semi-finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 6.28 | 4.14 | 2.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 5.97 | 7.93 | -2.00 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.85 | 3.99 | -1.10 |
| London Irish | 2.40 | -1.65 | 4.00 |
| Harlequins | 1.28 | 3.92 | -2.60 |
| Saracens | 0.83 | -5.00 | 5.80 |
| Bristol | 0.33 | -2.43 | 2.80 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -1.42 | 3.67 | -5.10 |
| Gloucester | -1.80 | 5.92 | -7.70 |
| Bath | -2.20 | -9.15 | 6.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -11.59 | -8.76 | -2.80 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 117 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Saracens | May 07 | 61 – 29 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | May 07 | 36 – 21 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | May 07 | 17 – 20 | 10.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 07 | 17 – 14 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 07 | 54 – 12 | 20.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Semi-finals
Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | May 14 | Saracens | 2.50 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | May 15 | Sale Sharks | 4.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
First of all many thanks for sharing your predictions, I find them very helpful and most of the times really accurate, but that you already know….. Just a quick comment, it is not Newcastle that are playing against Saracens, but Northampthon. Regards
1 year ago
Thank you for the kind words but even more so for alerting me to my error.
For the regular season I use programs to obtain details of the fixtures and any errors are so egregious that they are quickly apparent. For finals I have to enter the data by hand which is error prone. I am most grateful whenever I am advised of a mistake.
I have updated now.
1 year ago