May 9, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.57 17.95 -1.40
Chiefs 13.12 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.65 12.34 0.30
Hurricanes 9.54 9.59 -0.10
Brumbies 7.31 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 1.66 5.04 -3.40
Reds 0.25 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.28 -2.50 1.20
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Western Force -5.92 -5.54 -0.40
Fijian Drua -8.83 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -8.91 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 28 – 52 -6.60 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 27 – 24 -14.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 48 – 13 27.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 31 – 30 28.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 24 – 32 6.20 FALSE
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 26 – 33 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 Chiefs 18.40
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 Western Force 6.40
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 Hurricanes 23.80
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 Crusaders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 Waratahs 7.90
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 Brumbies 11.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »