Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
Unfortunately I missed Round 1. I have been travelling and lacking internet access at times.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 6.02 | 6.46 | -0.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 5.23 | 6.13 | -0.90 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.75 | -0.89 | 4.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.10 | 2.66 | 0.40 |
| Saracens | 2.18 | 6.82 | -4.60 |
| Harlequins | 2.09 | 1.93 | 0.20 |
| Bristol | 1.90 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Gloucester | -1.62 | -1.45 | -0.20 |
| Bath | -1.93 | -1.26 | -0.70 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -9.96 | -10.63 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 14 | 25 – 14 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens | Oct 14 | 65 – 10 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 15 | 34 – 26 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Oct 15 | 29 – 28 | 2.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 15 | 20 – 15 | 9.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester | Oct 21 | Gloucester | -2.30 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Oct 22 | Northampton Saints | 7.20 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Bath | Oct 22 | Saracens | 10.10 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 22 | Leicester Tigers | 5.20 |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 23 | Harlequins | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Any chance of getting stats on the URC tournament
7 months ago
I have now posted predictions for week 2.
I am back home with better access, so you can expect regular predictions. Also had to have some repairs done on the WordPress site, which I am not able to do myself.
7 months ago