November 23, 2023

Whole lotta baseball

From Ars Technica (and while it’s not a story about baseball, it is is trying to use numbers to mean something)

It’s actually 162 regular season games a year for 30 teams which means, 2,430 games a year. That’s 32,805 hours of baseball based on the average length of a game lasting 162 minutes. The regular season is 185 days long, which equals 4,440 hours. So there’s more baseball than time.

These numbers struck me as wrong immediately.  If there are 32k hours of baseball in 4k hours of regular season, it means an average of eight baseball games being played at any hour of the day or night. Since there’s a maximum of 15 games being played simultaneously (because 30 teams), that would mean a full baseball schedule for an average of nearly 12 hours every day.  There is a lot of baseball, but not that much.  They don’t play at 3am, and they take occasional days off to travel.

So, let’s run the numbers:

  • 162 games by 30 teams is 162×15 games, or 2430 games.
  • Average game lasts 162 minutes. 162×2430 is 393660 minutes, or 393660/60=6561 hours.
  • 185 day season is 185×24=4440 hours

The total hours of baseball seems off. In fact, it’s off by exactly a factor of five, suggesting the story was working with 12-minute hours for some reason.  With 6561 hours of baseball in a 4440 hour season, we’re looking at about 1.5 baseball games simultaneously, averaged over the season, which is more plausible.

While we’re at it, we might want to check on the 162 minutes/game since it’s a bit suspicious for two unrelated numbers in the same calculation to both be 162.  It’s right, at least for 2023, though it’s down from over 3 hours the previous season.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »

Comments

  • avatar
    Mark Donoghoe

    I believe the reduction in game length between 2022 and 2023 was due to the introduction of a limit on the time between pitches. The penalties for exceeding the time limit have been controversial but it seems to have saved over 950 hours of ‘dead’ time across the season!

    In the linked table, I was interested to see some variation in the total number of games across seasons. 2020 is obvious, and it’s unsurprising to see some seasons with fewer than 2430 games, but the ones with more (2018, 2013, 2007, …) seem to be thanks to a postseason qualification tiebreaker, counted as part of the regular season. That has now been done away with, replaced by a suitably complicated tiebreaking algorithm: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

    5 months ago