AFL Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 15.52 | 17.47 | -2.00 |
| GWS Giants | 14.32 | 12.60 | 1.70 |
| Collingwood | 13.16 | 14.87 | -1.70 |
| Melbourne Demons | 11.96 | 13.91 | -1.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 11.68 | 9.73 | 2.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 11.17 | 9.23 | 1.90 |
| Geelong Cats | 10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 9.56 | 9.56 | -0.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.83 | 8.83 | 0.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.04 | 6.04 | 0.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.63 | -0.63 | -0.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -2.71 | -4.60 | 1.90 |
| Richmond Tigers | -8.03 | -6.13 | -1.90 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -11.08 | -11.08 | -0.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -17.70 | -17.70 | -0.00 |
| North Melbourne | -25.73 | -25.73 | -0.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.10 | -43.10 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 4 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 07 | 86 – 64 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 08 | 85 – 86 | 16.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 09 | 99 – 60 | 10.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Collingwood | Mar 09 | 114 – 82 | 6.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 14 | Carlton Blues | 19.70 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 15 | Collingwood | 11.00 |
| 3 | Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 16 | Hawthorn Hawks | -6.60 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Mar 16 | GWS Giants | 49.00 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 16 | Geelong Cats | 20.10 |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 16 | Adelaide Crows | -3.30 |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 17 | Melbourne Demons | 14.90 |
| 8 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 17 | Port Adelaide Power | 60.90 |
| 9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 17 | Brisbane Lions | -6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »