Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.55 | 7.24 | 0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 6.06 | 6.40 | -0.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.78 | 4.07 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.32 | 2.62 | 0.70 |
| Toulon | 3.22 | 3.11 | 0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.77 | 3.42 | -0.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.33 | 2.09 | -0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.24 | -0.39 | 1.60 |
| Section Paloise | 0.23 | -0.44 | 0.70 |
| Bayonne | 0.12 | -1.32 | 1.40 |
| Clermont | 0.12 | 1.47 | -1.40 |
| Lyon | -0.87 | 2.97 | -3.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.27 | -3.64 | 0.40 |
| US Oyonnax | -7.98 | -10.00 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais | Mar 10 | 23 – 3 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. US Oyonnax | Mar 10 | 15 – 15 | 15.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 10 | 34 – 19 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 10 | 10 – 3 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Bayonne | Mar 10 | 42 – 40 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 10 | 27 – 17 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | Mar 11 | 20 – 6 | 5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Mar 24 | Toulon | 8.40 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Mar 24 | Castres Olympique | 5.00 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Section Paloise | Mar 24 | Clermont | 6.40 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | Mar 24 | Stade Francais | 10.70 |
| 5 | US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 24 | US Oyonnax | 1.80 |
| 6 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 24 | Bayonne | 0.60 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 25 | Bordeaux Begles | 2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »