AFL Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | 15.87 | 13.91 | 2.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.74 | 17.47 | -1.70 |
| GWS Giants | 14.07 | 12.60 | 1.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 14.00 | 10.50 | 3.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.52 | 9.73 | 0.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 9.41 | 8.83 | 0.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 9.09 | 9.23 | -0.10 |
| Collingwood | 8.94 | 14.87 | -5.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.08 | 0.40 | 5.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.96 | 6.04 | -1.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.82 | 9.56 | -4.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | 2.86 | -0.63 | 3.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -2.70 | -4.60 | 1.90 |
| Richmond Tigers | -10.08 | -6.13 | -3.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -12.48 | -17.70 | 5.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -17.01 | -11.08 | -5.90 |
| North Melbourne | -30.69 | -25.73 | -5.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -39.25 | -43.10 | 3.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 11 | 60 – 82 | 13.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 12 | 67 – 96 | 23.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 13 | 80 – 79 | 23.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 13 | 98 – 100 | 17.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 13 | 109 – 56 | 18.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 13 | 66 – 63 | 15.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne | Apr 14 | 139 – 64 | 50.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 14 | 109 – 70 | -28.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 18 | Western Bulldogs | -2.10 |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 19 | Adelaide Crows | 26.30 |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 20 | Collingwood | 8.50 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants | Apr 20 | Carlton Blues | 5.50 |
| 5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 20 | Brisbane Lions | 10.70 |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 20 | Fremantle Dockers | -45.30 |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 21 | Sydney Swans | 20.80 |
| 8 | North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 21 | Hawthorn Hawks | -4.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »