AFL Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 16.35 | 10.50 | 5.90 |
| Melbourne Demons | 15.87 | 13.91 | 2.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.39 | 17.47 | -4.10 |
| GWS Giants | 12.58 | 12.60 | -0.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 12.01 | 9.73 | 2.30 |
| Sydney Swans | 11.20 | 9.23 | 2.00 |
| Collingwood | 11.12 | 14.87 | -3.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.43 | 6.04 | 2.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 7.23 | 8.83 | -1.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 2.88 | 9.56 | -6.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 1.41 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.60 | -0.63 | 0.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.80 | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -10.08 | -6.13 | -3.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -10.54 | -17.70 | 7.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -14.46 | -11.08 | -3.40 |
| North Melbourne | -33.24 | -25.73 | -7.50 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.58 | -43.10 | 8.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 18 | 64 – 124 | -2.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 19 | 75 – 78 | 26.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 20 | 123 – 81 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants | Apr 20 | 117 – 98 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 20 | 37 – 63 | 10.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 20 | 105 – 68 | -45.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 21 | 110 – 57 | 20.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 21 | 68 – 113 | -4.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 24 | Melbourne Demons | -26.00 |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood | Apr 25 | Collingwood | -30.70 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 25 | GWS Giants | 8.20 |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 26 | Port Adelaide Power | 16.80 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 27 | Adelaide Crows | -27.10 |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 27 | Carlton Blues | -4.70 |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 27 | Fremantle Dockers | 2.00 |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 28 | Gold Coast Suns | 38.80 |
| 9 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 28 | Sydney Swans | -16.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »